Thursday, 10/09/2026 at 20:15
Full timePanathinaikos 3:1 AE Kifisia
Panathinaikos were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 3–1.
The model against the result
- Panathinaikos
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- AE Kifisia
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.22 xG created 1.84 xGA
1.25 xG created 1.19 xGA
- W 1.75 created, 0.76 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
- L 1.29 created, 1.61 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- D 0.44 created, 1.69 conceded against Asteras Aktor
- W 1.83 created, 1.97 conceded against AE Larisa
- D 1.11 created, 0.42 conceded against AEK Athens
- L 1.10 created, 0.67 conceded against OFI Crete
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AE Kifisia to win | 12.00 | +145.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.25 | +61.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +24.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +21.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | +14.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 48.8% | 74.0% | −25.2 pp | 2.05 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 18.1% | +12.6 pp | 3.25 |
| AE Kifisia | 20.5% | 7.9% | +12.6 pp | 4.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 42.3% | +9.6 pp | 1.93 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.1% | 57.7% | −9.6 pp | 2.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | 79.2% | −6.1 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.9% | 20.8% | +6.1 pp | 3.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 57.1% | −13.8 pp | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 42.9% | +13.8 pp | 1.77 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Panathinaikos sample
- 20 matches
- AE Kifisia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.