AE Kifisia 1:1 AEK Athens: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · Super League Greece

AE Kifisia Home 1.11 xG · 14 shots

AEK Athens Away 0.42 xG · 9 shots

11 AE Kifisia had the better chances, but it finished level

AEK Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was AEK Athens's attack: 0.42 xG against 1.45 projected (−1.03).

Goals

63' Barnabás Varga AEK Athens · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
90' Benny AE Kifisia · 0.03 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AE Kifisia: 20%
Draw: 31% What happened
AEK Athens: 49%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AE Kifisia 0.88 1.11 +0.23

AEK Athens 1.45 0.42 -1.03

AEK Athens produced 1.03 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AE Kifisia AEK Athens

Shots: 14; 9
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 10; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.85; 0.31
Set-piece xG: 0.26; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 1.53 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AE Kifisia
AEK Athens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AE Kifisia

1.35 xG created 1.09 xGA

D 1.40 created, 0.34 conceded against Panetolikos
W 1.38 created, 0.15 conceded against Panetolikos
W 1.75 created, 0.76 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
L 1.29 created, 1.61 conceded against Atromitos Athens
D 0.44 created, 1.69 conceded against Asteras Aktor
W 1.83 created, 1.97 conceded against AE Larisa

AEK Athens

1.75 xG created 0.76 xGA

W 2.29 created, 0.57 conceded against PAOK
D 2.19 created, 1.21 conceded against Panathinaikos
W 2.16 created, 0.45 conceded against Panathinaikos
D 1.02 created, 1.35 conceded against PAOK
D 0.78 created, 0.62 conceded against Olympiacos FC
W 2.06 created, 0.38 conceded against Iraklis 1908

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AE Kifisia: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AE Kifisia against AEK Athens before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
AE Kifisia to win	10.00	+78.8%	Lost
Draw	5.00	+34.0%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+22.1%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+12.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AE Kifisia	19.9%	9.4%	+10.5 pp	5.03
Draw	30.9%	18.7%	+12.2 pp	3.23
AEK Athens	49.2%	71.9%	−22.7 pp	2.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.4%	46.7%	+3.7 pp	1.98
Both teams not to score	49.6%	53.3%	−3.7 pp	2.02
Over 1.5 goals	71.8%	78.3%	−6.5 pp	1.39
Under 1.5 goals	28.2%	21.7%	+6.5 pp	3.55
Over 2.5 goals	41.9%	56.3%	−14.5 pp	2.39
Under 2.5 goals	58.1%	43.7%	+14.5 pp	1.72

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AE Kifisia sample: 20 matches
AEK Athens sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.