Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeOFI Crete 2:0 AE Kifisia
AE Kifisia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. OFI Crete won 2–0. The biggest difference was OFI Crete's attack: 0.67 xG against 1.07 projected (−0.40).
Goals
- 24' Athanasios Androutsos OFI Crete · 0.38 xG chance 1–0
- 32' Andreas Bouchalakis OFI Crete · 0.11 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- OFI Crete
- 31% What happened
- Draw
- 34%
- AE Kifisia
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
OFI Crete produced 0.40 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 16
- On target
- 3
- 3
- Inside the box
- 2
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.57
- 0.89
- Set-piece xG
- 0.11
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.67 for OFI Crete and 1.10 for AE Kifisia.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 1.77 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- OFI Crete
- AE Kifisia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.23 xG created 1.49 xGA
- L 0.59 created, 0.77 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- L 1.53 created, 1.76 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- L 0.72 created, 2.38 conceded against APO Levadiakos
- W 1.79 created, 1.34 conceded against NPS Volos
- W 1.40 created, 0.91 conceded against NPS Volos
- L 1.34 created, 1.75 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
1.30 xG created 1.10 xGA
- W 1.38 created, 0.15 conceded against Panetolikos
- W 1.75 created, 0.76 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
- L 1.29 created, 1.61 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- D 0.44 created, 1.69 conceded against Asteras Aktor
- W 1.83 created, 1.97 conceded against AE Larisa
- D 1.11 created, 0.42 conceded against AEK Athens
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AE Kifisia to win | 3.50 | +21.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.25 | +10.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +5.0% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.25 | +0.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete | 31.3% | 44.5% | −13.2 pp | 3.19 |
| Draw | 33.9% | 28.8% | +5.1 pp | 2.95 |
| AE Kifisia | 34.8% | 26.7% | +8.1 pp | 2.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 50.0% | +0.5 pp | 1.98 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.5% | 50.0% | −0.5 pp | 2.02 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | 70.9% | −1.9 pp | 1.45 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 29.1% | +1.9 pp | 3.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 44.7% | −6.5 pp | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 55.3% | +6.5 pp | 1.62 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- OFI Crete sample
- 20 matches
- AE Kifisia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.