APO Levadiakos 0:2 Panetolikos: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

APO Levadiakos Home 0.69 xG · 17 shots

Panetolikos Away 1.27 xG · 9 shots

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

APO Levadiakos were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. Panetolikos won 2–0. The biggest difference was APO Levadiakos's attack: 0.69 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.76). Panetolikos produced 1.27 xG against 0.86 projected (+0.41).

Goals

77' Kwadwo Opoku Panetolikos · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
90' Kwadwo Opoku Panetolikos · 1.00 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

APO Levadiakos: 50%
Draw: 31%
Panetolikos: 19% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

APO Levadiakos 1.45 0.69 -0.76

Panetolikos 0.86 1.27 +0.41

APO Levadiakos produced 0.76 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

APO Levadiakos Panetolikos

Shots: 17; 9
On target: 0; 3
Inside the box: 6; 7
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.36; 1.20
Set-piece xG: 0.35; 0.09
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.69 for APO Levadiakos and 1.28 for Panetolikos.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.00 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

APO Levadiakos
Panetolikos
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

APO Levadiakos

1.96 xG created 1.42 xGA

W 4.71 created, 2.35 conceded against NPS Volos
W 2.17 created, 0.54 conceded against NPS Volos
W 2.38 created, 0.72 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.97 created, 1.64 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 0.57 created, 2.15 conceded against PAOK
L 0.96 created, 1.09 conceded against Panathinaikos

Panetolikos

1.52 xG created 1.22 xGA

W 1.08 created, 0.95 conceded against Atromitos Athens
D 1.56 created, 0.90 conceded against AE Larisa
D 1.27 created, 1.40 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
L 2.23 created, 1.86 conceded against Asteras Aktor
W 0.50 created, 1.19 conceded against Asteras Aktor
W 2.46 created, 1.02 conceded against PS Kalamata

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

APO Levadiakos: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on APO Levadiakos against Panetolikos before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+5.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
APO Levadiakos	49.7%	49.7%	−0.0 pp	2.01
Draw	30.9%	27.8%	+3.2 pp	3.23
Panetolikos	19.3%	22.5%	−3.2 pp	5.17

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	49.6%	46.7%	+2.9 pp	2.02
Both teams not to score	50.4%	53.3%	−2.9 pp	1.98
Over 1.5 goals	71.2%	68.7%	+2.4 pp	1.40
Under 1.5 goals	28.8%	31.3%	−2.4 pp	3.47
Over 2.5 goals	41.1%	42.9%	−1.7 pp	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	58.9%	57.1%	+1.7 pp	1.70

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
APO Levadiakos sample: 20 matches
Panetolikos sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.