APO Levadiakos 0:1 Olympiacos FC: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

APO Levadiakos Home 0.37 xG · 8 shots

Olympiacos FC Away 1.17 xG · 18 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Olympiacos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was APO Levadiakos's attack: 0.37 xG against 0.80 projected (−0.43). Olympiacos FC produced 1.17 xG against 1.52 projected (−0.35).

Goals

90' Manolis Saliakas Olympiacos FC · 0.26 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

APO Levadiakos: 17%
Draw: 30%
Olympiacos FC: 53% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

APO Levadiakos 0.80 0.37 -0.43

Olympiacos FC 1.52 1.17 -0.35

APO Levadiakos produced 0.43 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

APO Levadiakos Olympiacos FC

Shots: 8; 18
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 5; 12
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.06
Open play xG: 0.27; 0.99
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.15
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.37 for APO Levadiakos and 1.17 for Olympiacos FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 1.50 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

APO Levadiakos
Olympiacos FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

APO Levadiakos

1.02 xG created 1.38 xGA

W 2.38 created, 0.72 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.97 created, 1.64 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 0.57 created, 2.15 conceded against PAOK
L 0.96 created, 1.09 conceded against Panathinaikos
L 0.69 created, 1.27 conceded against Panetolikos
D 0.53 created, 1.38 conceded against AE Kifisia

Olympiacos FC

1.76 xG created 0.57 xGA

W 2.07 created, 0.22 conceded against Panathinaikos
D 0.62 created, 0.78 conceded against AEK Athens
W 3.17 created, 0.30 conceded against Atromitos Athens
W 1.70 created, 0.83 conceded against Asteras Aktor
D 1.62 created, 0.41 conceded against NPS Volos
L 1.39 created, 0.87 conceded against OFI Crete

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

APO Levadiakos: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on APO Levadiakos against Olympiacos FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+42.4%	Lost
APO Levadiakos to win	8.50	+41.8%	Lost
Olympiacos FC at most 1 goal	2.38	+27.7%	Won
Olympiacos FC not to score	6.50	+25.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	+14.0%	Won
APO Levadiakos to score	1.83	+6.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+2.4%	Lost
APO Levadiakos 2+ goals	5.50	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
APO Levadiakos	16.7%	11.1%	+5.6 pp	5.99
Draw	30.0%	19.8%	+10.1 pp	3.34
Olympiacos FC	53.3%	69.1%	−15.7 pp	1.88

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
APO Levadiakos to score	58.2%	50.0%	+8.2 pp	1.72
APO Levadiakos not to score	41.8%	50.0%	−8.2 pp	2.39
Olympiacos FC to score	80.7%	85.4%	−4.7 pp	1.24
Olympiacos FC not to score	19.3%	14.6%	+4.7 pp	5.19
Both teams to score	48.8%	44.3%	+4.5 pp	2.05
Both teams not to score	51.2%	55.7%	−4.5 pp	1.95
APO Levadiakos 2+ goals	18.4%	17.2%	+1.2 pp	5.45
APO Levadiakos at most 1 goal	81.6%	82.8%	−1.2 pp	1.22
Olympiacos FC 2+ goals	46.2%	60.8%	−14.5 pp	2.16
Olympiacos FC at most 1 goal	53.8%	39.2%	+14.5 pp	1.86
Over 1.5 goals	71.6%	73.1%	−1.5 pp	1.40
Under 1.5 goals	28.4%	26.9%	+1.5 pp	3.52
Over 2.5 goals	41.6%	51.3%	−9.8 pp	2.41
Under 2.5 goals	58.4%	48.7%	+9.8 pp	1.71

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
APO Levadiakos sample: 20 matches
Olympiacos FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.