NPS Volos 1:1 Olympiacos FC: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

NPS Volos Home 0.41 xG · 6 shots

Olympiacos FC Away 1.62 xG · 17 shots

11 Olympiacos FC had the better chances, but it finished level

Olympiacos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was NPS Volos's attack: 0.41 xG against 0.68 projected (−0.27).

Goals

45' Jota Silva (pen.) Olympiacos FC · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
76' Maximiliano Comba NPS Volos · 0.19 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NPS Volos: 10%
Draw: 25% What happened
Olympiacos FC: 65%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NPS Volos 0.68 0.41 -0.27

Olympiacos FC 1.83 1.62 -0.21

NPS Volos produced 0.27 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NPS Volos Olympiacos FC

Shots: 6; 17
On target: 1; 4
Inside the box: 3; 13
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.33; 0.41
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.40
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.41 for NPS Volos and 0.83 for Olympiacos FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.03 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

NPS Volos
Olympiacos FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NPS Volos

1.13 xG created 1.99 xGA

L 2.35 created, 4.71 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.54 created, 2.17 conceded against APO Levadiakos
L 0.42 created, 1.40 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.34 created, 1.79 conceded against OFI Crete
L 0.91 created, 1.40 conceded against OFI Crete
D 1.19 created, 0.48 conceded against Iraklis 1908

Olympiacos FC

2.01 xG created 0.80 xGA

L 2.28 created, 1.95 conceded against PAOK
D 2.19 created, 0.73 conceded against PAOK
W 2.07 created, 0.22 conceded against Panathinaikos
D 0.62 created, 0.78 conceded against AEK Athens
W 3.17 created, 0.30 conceded against Atromitos Athens
W 1.70 created, 0.83 conceded against Asteras Aktor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NPS Volos: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NPS Volos against Olympiacos FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+16.9%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+11.7%	Won
NPS Volos to win	10.00	+4.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NPS Volos	10.4%	9.4%	+1.0 pp	9.61
Draw	24.6%	19.8%	+4.8 pp	4.06
Olympiacos FC	65.0%	70.7%	−5.8 pp	1.54

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	46.1%	45.3%	+0.8 pp	2.17
Both teams not to score	53.9%	54.7%	−0.8 pp	1.86
Over 1.5 goals	75.3%	76.6%	−1.3 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.7%	23.4%	+1.3 pp	4.05
Over 2.5 goals	46.8%	55.3%	−8.4 pp	2.14
Under 2.5 goals	53.2%	44.7%	+8.4 pp	1.88

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NPS Volos sample: 20 matches
Olympiacos FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.