Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeOlympiacos FC 0:1 OFI Crete
Olympiacos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 75%. OFI Crete won 1–0. The biggest difference was Olympiacos FC's attack: 1.39 xG against 2.08 projected (−0.69). OFI Crete produced 0.87 xG against 0.51 projected (+0.36).
Goals
- 66' Kenan Kodro OFI Crete · 0.16 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Olympiacos FC
- 75%
- Draw
- 20%
- OFI Crete
- 6% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Olympiacos FC produced 0.69 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 13
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.06
- 0.64
- Set-piece xG
- 0.29
- 0.24
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for Olympiacos FC and 0.87 for OFI Crete.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 2.23 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Olympiacos FC
- OFI Crete
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.89 xG created 0.55 xGA
1.24 xG created 1.54 xGA
- L 1.53 created, 1.76 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- L 0.72 created, 2.38 conceded against APO Levadiakos
- W 1.79 created, 1.34 conceded against NPS Volos
- W 1.40 created, 0.91 conceded against NPS Volos
- L 1.34 created, 1.75 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- W 0.67 created, 1.10 conceded against AE Kifisia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 6.25 | +22.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +16.8% | Won |
| Olympiacos FC at most 1 goal | 3.00 | +8.8% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +4.2% | Won |
| OFI Crete at most 1 goal | 1.10 | +1.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos FC | 74.8% | 76.1% | −1.3 pp | 1.34 |
| Draw | 19.7% | 15.2% | +4.4 pp | 5.09 |
| OFI Crete | 5.5% | 8.7% | −3.1 pp | 18.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos FC to score | 89.5% | 89.4% | +0.1 pp | 1.12 |
| Olympiacos FC not to score | 10.5% | 10.6% | −0.1 pp | 9.49 |
| OFI Crete to score | 43.1% | 44.3% | −1.1 pp | 2.32 |
| OFI Crete not to score | 56.9% | 55.7% | +1.1 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 39.8% | 42.3% | −2.6 pp | 2.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 60.2% | 57.7% | +2.6 pp | 1.66 |
| Olympiacos FC 2+ goals | 63.7% | 68.7% | −5.0 pp | 1.57 |
| Olympiacos FC at most 1 goal | 36.3% | 31.3% | +5.0 pp | 2.76 |
| OFI Crete 2+ goals | 7.8% | 13.6% | −5.8 pp | 12.81 |
| OFI Crete at most 1 goal | 92.2% | 86.4% | +5.8 pp | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | 79.2% | −2.4 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 20.8% | +2.4 pp | 4.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 59.0% | −9.7 pp | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 41.0% | +9.7 pp | 1.97 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Olympiacos FC sample
- 20 matches
- OFI Crete sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.