Başakşehir FK 1:1 Kasımpaşa: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Başakşehir FK Home 0.76 xG · 12 shots

Kasımpaşa Away 1.69 xG · 12 shots

11 Kasımpaşa had the better chances, but it finished level

Başakşehir FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Kasımpaşa's attack: 1.69 xG against 0.71 projected (+0.98). Başakşehir FK produced 0.76 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.70).

Goals

18' Eldor Shomurodov Başakşehir FK · 0.09 xG chance 1–0
81' Fousseni Diabaté Kasımpaşa · 0.87 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Başakşehir FK: 54%
Draw: 30% What happened
Kasımpaşa: 15%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Başakşehir FK 1.46 0.76 -0.70

Kasımpaşa 0.71 1.69 +0.98

Kasımpaşa produced 0.98 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Başakşehir FK Kasımpaşa

Shots: 12; 12
On target: 2; 3
Inside the box: 4; 5
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.75; 1.38
Set-piece xG: 0.04; 0.17
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.76 for Başakşehir FK and 1.58 for Kasımpaşa.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.34 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Başakşehir FK
Kasımpaşa
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Başakşehir FK

2.09 xG created 0.99 xGA

W 2.22 created, 0.24 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 0.89 created, 2.05 conceded against Fenerbahçe
W 3.31 created, 0.32 conceded against Samsunspor
W 2.21 created, 0.63 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 1.96 created, 0.43 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 1.95 created, 2.27 conceded against Trabzonspor

Kasımpaşa

0.98 xG created 1.21 xGA

L 0.24 created, 2.22 conceded against Başakşehir FK
D 0.85 created, 0.64 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 1.98 created, 1.86 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 0.65 created, 0.55 conceded against Galatasaray
D 1.86 created, 0.85 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 0.32 created, 1.11 conceded against Çorum FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Başakşehir FK: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Başakşehir FK against Kasımpaşa before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+28.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	+25.5%	Won
Draw	3.80	+21.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Başakşehir FK	54.4%	58.2%	−3.7 pp	1.84
Draw	30.4%	24.7%	+5.7 pp	3.29
Kasımpaşa	15.2%	17.1%	−1.9 pp	6.59

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Over 1.5 goals	67.8%	76.6%	−8.8 pp	1.47
Under 1.5 goals	32.2%	23.4%	+8.8 pp	3.11
Over 2.5 goals	37.2%	54.6%	−17.3 pp	2.69
Under 2.5 goals	62.8%	45.4%	+17.3 pp	1.59

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Başakşehir FK sample: 20 matches
Kasımpaşa sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.