Beşiktaş 6:2 Çorum FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Süper Lig

Beşiktaş Home 2.97 xG · 18 shots

Çorum FK Away 0.67 xG · 11 shots

62 The scoreline reflected the chances

Beşiktaş were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 6–2. The biggest difference was Beşiktaş's attack: 2.97 xG against 1.81 projected (+1.16). Çorum FK produced 0.67 xG against 0.92 projected (−0.25).

Goals

9' Václav Černý Beşiktaş · 0.50 xG chance 1–0
43' Dušan Vlahović (pen.) Beşiktaş · 0.82 xG chance 2–0
52' Mohammed Diomande Çorum FK · 0.02 xG chance 2–1
59' Dušan Vlahović Beşiktaş · 0.12 xG chance 3–1
66' Dušan Vlahović Beşiktaş · 0.24 xG chance 4–1
73' İlhan Fakılı Beşiktaş · 0.11 xG chance 5–1
77' Ermin Mahmić Çorum FK · 0.21 xG chance 5–2
83' Amir Murillo Beşiktaş · 0.06 xG chance 6–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Beşiktaş: 58% What happened
Draw: 26%
Çorum FK: 16%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Beşiktaş 1.81 2.97 +1.16

Çorum FK 0.92 0.67 -0.25

Beşiktaş produced 1.16 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Beşiktaş Çorum FK

Shots: 18; 11
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 15; 3
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.48; 0.60
Set-piece xG: 0.62; 0.00
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.08 for Beşiktaş and 0.59 for Çorum FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.52 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Beşiktaş
Çorum FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Beşiktaş

1.59 xG created 1.08 xGA

D 2.02 created, 0.61 conceded against Fatih Karagümrük
W 1.46 created, 1.68 conceded against Gaziantep FK
L 2.22 created, 0.69 conceded against Trabzonspor
D 1.82 created, 2.87 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
W 1.28 created, 0.09 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 0.74 created, 0.54 conceded against Alanyaspor

Çorum FK

0.86 xG created 1.61 xGA

D 0.61 created, 2.90 conceded against Galatasaray
L 1.11 created, 0.32 conceded against Kasımpaşa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Beşiktaş against Çorum FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	5.00	+31.9%	Lost
Çorum FK 2+ goals	5.00	+16.5%	Won
Both teams to score	2.00	+12.1%	Won
Çorum FK to score	1.73	+9.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Beşiktaş	57.7%	65.3%	−7.5 pp	1.73
Draw	26.4%	18.9%	+7.4 pp	3.79
Çorum FK	15.9%	15.8%	+0.1 pp	6.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Beşiktaş to score	86.0%	85.4%	+0.6 pp	1.16
Beşiktaş not to score	14.0%	14.6%	−0.6 pp	7.14
Çorum FK to score	63.3%	53.7%	+9.7 pp	1.58
Çorum FK not to score	36.7%	46.3%	−9.7 pp	2.73
Both teams to score	56.0%	46.3%	+9.7 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	44.0%	53.7%	−9.7 pp	2.27
Beşiktaş 2+ goals	56.1%	58.9%	−2.8 pp	1.78
Beşiktaş at most 1 goal	43.9%	41.1%	+2.8 pp	2.28
Çorum FK 2+ goals	23.3%	18.9%	+4.4 pp	4.29
Çorum FK at most 1 goal	76.7%	81.1%	−4.4 pp	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	79.9%	75.0%	+4.9 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	25.0%	−4.9 pp	4.96
Over 2.5 goals	53.0%	53.9%	−0.9 pp	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	47.0%	46.1%	+0.9 pp	2.13

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Beşiktaş sample: 20 matches
Çorum FK sample: 2 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Çorum FK has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.