Galatasaray 3:2 Göztepe: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Süper Lig

Galatasaray Home 2.87 xG · 34 shots

Göztepe Away 0.63 xG · 9 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Galatasaray were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Galatasaray's attack: 2.87 xG against 1.81 projected (+1.06). Göztepe produced 0.63 xG against 1.01 projected (−0.38).

Goals

16' Novatus Miroshi Göztepe · 0.25 xG chance 0–1
33' Davinson Sánchez Galatasaray · 0.22 xG chance 1–1
55' Gabriel Sara Galatasaray · 0.13 xG chance 2–1
63' Victor Osimhen (pen.) Galatasaray · 0.82 xG chance 3–1
65' Juan Santos da Silva Göztepe · 0.09 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Galatasaray: 55% What happened
Draw: 27%
Göztepe: 18%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Galatasaray 1.81 2.87 +1.06

Göztepe 1.01 0.63 -0.38

Galatasaray produced 1.06 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Galatasaray Göztepe

Shots: 34; 9
On target: 11; 4
Inside the box: 27; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.54; 0.15
Set-piece xG: 0.60; 0.45
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.19 for Galatasaray and 0.61 for Göztepe.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

43 shots · 3.56 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Galatasaray
Göztepe
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Galatasaray

2.39 xG created 0.79 xGA

W 2.71 created, 1.25 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 0.89 created, 1.37 conceded against Samsunspor
W 4.18 created, 0.38 conceded against Antalyaspor
L 0.55 created, 0.65 conceded against Kasımpaşa
D 2.90 created, 0.61 conceded against Çorum FK
W 3.08 created, 0.48 conceded against Erzurumspor FK

Göztepe

1.98 xG created 1.49 xGA

W 2.44 created, 0.91 conceded against Antalyaspor
D 1.54 created, 0.79 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 2.08 created, 0.77 conceded against Gaziantep FK
L 2.20 created, 2.11 conceded against Samsunspor
D 1.71 created, 2.80 conceded against Samsunspor
L 1.92 created, 1.56 conceded against Gençlerbirliği

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Galatasaray: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Galatasaray against Göztepe before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Göztepe to win	7.00	+26.3%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+19.8%	Lost
Göztepe 2+ goals	4.33	+16.7%	Won
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	2.63	+15.5%	Lost
Galatasaray not to score	8.00	+12.4%	Lost
Göztepe to score	1.67	+11.0%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+7.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+5.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Galatasaray	55.3%	65.9%	−10.5 pp	1.81
Draw	26.6%	20.8%	+5.8 pp	3.76
Göztepe	18.0%	13.4%	+4.7 pp	5.54

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Galatasaray to score	86.0%	88.1%	−2.1 pp	1.16
Galatasaray not to score	14.0%	11.9%	+2.1 pp	7.12
Göztepe to score	66.6%	55.7%	+10.8 pp	1.50
Göztepe not to score	33.4%	44.3%	−10.8 pp	2.99
Both teams to score	58.8%	50.0%	+8.8 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.2%	50.0%	−8.8 pp	2.43
Galatasaray 2+ goals	56.0%	64.5%	−8.5 pp	1.79
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	44.0%	35.5%	+8.5 pp	2.27
Göztepe 2+ goals	26.9%	21.7%	+5.2 pp	3.71
Göztepe at most 1 goal	73.1%	78.3%	−5.2 pp	1.37
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	81.1%	+0.2 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	18.9%	−0.2 pp	5.34
Over 2.5 goals	55.2%	59.9%	−4.7 pp	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	44.8%	40.1%	+4.7 pp	2.23

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Galatasaray sample: 20 matches
Göztepe sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.