Trabzonspor 4:0 Galatasaray: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Trabzonspor Home 2.20 xG · 7 shots

Galatasaray Away 0.96 xG · 13 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Galatasaray were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Trabzonspor won 4–0. The biggest difference was Trabzonspor's attack: 2.20 xG against 1.17 projected (+1.03). Galatasaray produced 0.96 xG against 1.42 projected (−0.46).

Goals

4' Mohamed Salah Trabzonspor · 0.61 xG chance 1–0
39' Noah Saviolo Trabzonspor · 0.04 xG chance 2–0
44' Mohamed Salah Trabzonspor · 0.25 xG chance 3–0
80' Mohamed Salah Trabzonspor · 0.34 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Trabzonspor: 28% What happened
Draw: 31%
Galatasaray: 41%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Trabzonspor 1.17 2.20 +1.03

Galatasaray 1.42 0.96 -0.46

Trabzonspor produced 1.03 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Trabzonspor Galatasaray

Shots: 7; 13
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 7; 8
xG per shot: 0.32; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.90; 0.44
Set-piece xG: 0.34; 0.43
Penalties: —; —

Trabzonspor's shots add up to 2.24 xG and Galatasaray's to 0.87; the published figures are 2.20 and 0.96.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 3.11 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Trabzonspor
Galatasaray
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Trabzonspor

1.44 xG created 1.66 xGA

L 0.57 created, 1.58 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
D 0.85 created, 1.86 conceded against Kasımpaşa
W 2.27 created, 1.95 conceded against Başakşehir FK
L 0.93 created, 2.69 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
W 3.21 created, 0.86 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
L 0.83 created, 1.01 conceded against Konyaspor

Galatasaray

2.30 xG created 0.86 xGA

L 0.55 created, 0.65 conceded against Kasımpaşa
D 2.90 created, 0.61 conceded against Çorum FK
W 3.08 created, 0.48 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
W 2.87 created, 0.63 conceded against Göztepe
W 2.12 created, 1.99 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 2.26 created, 0.82 conceded against Kocaelispor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Trabzonspor: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Trabzonspor against Galatasaray before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+37.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+35.7%	Lost
Trabzonspor not to score	4.33	+22.1%	Lost
Trabzonspor at most 1 goal	1.80	+20.3%	Lost
Galatasaray not to score	5.50	+17.5%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.75	+14.7%	Won
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	2.00	+14.7%	Won
Draw	3.70	+13.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Trabzonspor	28.4%	31.9%	−3.5 pp	3.52
Draw	30.8%	25.0%	+5.8 pp	3.25
Galatasaray	40.8%	43.1%	−2.2 pp	2.45

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Trabzonspor to score	71.8%	78.3%	−6.5 pp	1.39
Trabzonspor not to score	28.2%	21.7%	+6.5 pp	3.55
Galatasaray to score	78.6%	82.8%	−4.2 pp	1.27
Galatasaray not to score	21.4%	17.2%	+4.2 pp	4.68
Both teams to score	58.3%	66.3%	−8.0 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.7%	33.7%	+8.0 pp	2.40
Trabzonspor 2+ goals	33.2%	48.5%	−15.4 pp	3.02
Trabzonspor at most 1 goal	66.8%	51.5%	+15.4 pp	1.50
Galatasaray 2+ goals	42.7%	53.7%	−11.0 pp	2.34
Galatasaray at most 1 goal	57.3%	46.3%	+11.0 pp	1.74
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	84.2%	−6.8 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	15.8%	+6.8 pp	4.42
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	65.2%	−16.0 pp	2.04
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	34.8%	+16.0 pp	1.97

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Trabzonspor sample: 20 matches
Galatasaray sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.