AGF 2:2 Odense Boldklub: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

AGF Home 1.88 xG · 31 shots

Odense Boldklub Away 0.81 xG · 6 shots

22 AGF had the better chances, but it finished level

AGF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. It finished 2–2. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

21' James Bogere AGF · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
26' Fiete Arp Odense Boldklub · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
42' Fiete Arp Odense Boldklub · 0.39 xG chance 1–2
75' Rasmus Carstensen AGF · 0.32 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AGF: 53%
Draw: 27% What happened
Odense Boldklub: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AGF 1.77 1.88 +0.11

Odense Boldklub 1.05 0.81 -0.24

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AGF Odense Boldklub

Shots: 31; 6
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 19; 4
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.14
Open play xG: 1.47; 0.81
Set-piece xG: 0.40; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.88 for AGF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 2.68 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AGF
Odense Boldklub
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AGF

1.68 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.64 created, 0.87 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 0.59 created, 0.58 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 2.70 created, 2.09 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.91 created, 0.81 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.35 created, 3.37 conceded against Lyngby
L 1.92 created, 1.03 conceded against Viborg FF

Odense Boldklub

1.42 xG created 1.53 xGA

D 0.94 created, 1.99 conceded against Randers FC
L 1.23 created, 1.03 conceded against Vejle
L 1.72 created, 2.04 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.11 created, 0.59 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 1.14 created, 1.92 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 1.37 created, 1.58 conceded against AC Horsens

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AGF: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AGF against Odense Boldklub before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.90	+5.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AGF	53.4%	54.3%	−0.9 pp	1.87
Draw	27.1%	24.0%	+3.1 pp	3.68
Odense Boldklub	19.4%	21.6%	−2.2 pp	5.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.6%	55.7%	+3.9 pp	1.68
Both teams not to score	40.4%	44.3%	−3.9 pp	2.48
Over 1.5 goals	81.3%	78.3%	+3.0 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.7%	21.7%	−3.0 pp	5.36
Over 2.5 goals	55.3%	56.3%	−1.0 pp	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	44.7%	43.7%	+1.0 pp	2.24

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AGF sample: 20 matches
Odense Boldklub sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.