Viborg FF 0:2 Lyngby: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Viborg FF Home 1.52 xG · 18 shots

Lyngby Away 1.55 xG · 6 shots

02 The chances were evenly matched

Viborg FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Lyngby won 2–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

32' Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson Lyngby · 0.25 xG chance 0–1
62' Simon Colyn (pen.) Lyngby · 0.82 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Viborg FF: 39%
Draw: 28%
Lyngby: 33% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Viborg FF 1.57 1.52 -0.05

Lyngby 1.44 1.55 +0.11

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Viborg FF Lyngby

Shots: 18; 6
On target: 3; 2
Inside the box: 14; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.22
Open play xG: 1.05; 0.41
Set-piece xG: 0.47; 0.06
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.47 for Lyngby.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.81 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Viborg FF
Lyngby
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Viborg FF

1.60 xG created 1.13 xGA

W 2.04 created, 1.72 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.95 created, 1.34 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 1.47 created, 0.62 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 1.03 created, 1.92 conceded against AGF
W 1.19 created, 0.34 conceded against FC København
W 1.92 created, 0.83 conceded against AC Horsens

Lyngby

2.15 xG created 1.33 xGA

L 2.34 created, 1.56 conceded against FC København
D 3.37 created, 1.35 conceded against AGF
L 1.85 created, 1.51 conceded against Randers FC
D 0.49 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Midtjylland
L 2.87 created, 0.76 conceded against AC Horsens
D 1.97 created, 1.75 conceded against Odense Boldklub

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Viborg FF against Lyngby before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Lyngby to win	4.10	+34.1%	Won
Draw	4.10	+16.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Viborg FF	38.8%	53.9%	−15.1 pp	2.57
Draw	28.5%	23.0%	+5.4 pp	3.51
Lyngby	32.7%	23.0%	+9.7 pp	3.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.0%	60.8%	+5.2 pp	1.52
Both teams not to score	34.0%	39.2%	−5.2 pp	2.94
Over 1.5 goals	84.0%	81.1%	+3.0 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.0%	18.9%	−3.0 pp	6.27
Over 2.5 goals	59.6%	59.9%	−0.4 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.4%	40.1%	+0.4 pp	2.47

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Viborg FF sample: 20 matches
Lyngby sample: 6 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Lyngby has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.