Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFC Universitatea Cluj 2:3 FC Petrolul Ploieşti
FC Universitatea Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. FC Petrolul Ploieşti won 3–2. The biggest difference was FC Universitatea Cluj's attack: 3.33 xG against 2.05 projected (+1.28). FC Petrolul Ploieşti produced 2.02 xG against 1.20 projected (+0.82).
The model against the result
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 56%
- Draw
- 24%
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 19% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Universitatea Cluj produced 1.28 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 11
- On target
- 9
- 8
- Inside the box
- 17
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.18
Recent form
1.68 xG created 2.00 xGA
- L 0.53 created, 2.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 0.95 created, 1.69 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- L 1.22 created, 1.79 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- W 3.14 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 2.30 created, 2.47 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.94 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Dinamo București
1.19 xG created 1.95 xGA
- L 1.37 created, 1.85 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 1.37 created, 1.84 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 0.68 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- L 0.25 created, 4.14 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 2.23 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.26 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Rapid București
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged6 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +21.0% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +16.9% | Won |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals | 3.40 | +16.2% | Won |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score | 1.50 | +9.0% | Won |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 1.73 | +8.5% | Won |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 1.14 | +1.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 56.4% | 54.9% | +1.4 pp | 1.77 |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.3% | −0.9 pp | 4.08 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti | 19.1% | 19.7% | −0.6 pp | 5.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 89.0% | 82.8% | +6.3 pp | 1.12 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj not to score | 11.0% | 17.2% | −6.3 pp | 9.13 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score | 72.7% | 62.5% | +10.2 pp | 1.38 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti not to score | 27.3% | 37.5% | −10.2 pp | 3.66 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | 50.0% | +16.0 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.0% | 50.0% | −16.0 pp | 2.94 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 62.8% | 53.7% | +9.1 pp | 1.59 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj at most 1 goal | 37.2% | 46.3% | −9.1 pp | 2.69 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals | 34.2% | 27.7% | +6.5 pp | 2.92 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti at most 1 goal | 65.8% | 72.3% | −6.5 pp | 1.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 53.2% | +11.7 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | 46.8% | −11.7 pp | 2.85 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.