Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeFK Novi Pazar 1:1 FK Mačva Šabac
FK Novi Pazar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FK Novi Pazar's attack: 2.63 xG against 1.73 projected (+0.90). FK Mačva Šabac produced 0.92 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.32).
The model against the result
- FK Novi Pazar
- 48%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- FK Mačva Šabac
- 25%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FK Novi Pazar produced 0.90 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 10
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 13
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.09
Recent form
1.65 xG created 2.77 xGA
- L 0.49 created, 2.38 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 1.05 created, 1.88 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 2.45 created, 2.84 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.86 created, 2.67 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- W 2.85 created, 6.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- L 1.17 created, 0.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
0.85 xG created 2.04 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Mačva Šabac to win | 5.50 | +36.0% | Lost |
| FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals | 3.75 | +33.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +17.3% | Won |
| FK Mačva Šabac to score | 1.57 | +16.1% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +10.9% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | +2.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +1.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Novi Pazar | 47.6% | 59.6% | −12.0 pp | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27.7% | 23.4% | +4.3 pp | 3.61 |
| FK Mačva Šabac | 24.7% | 17.0% | +7.7 pp | 4.04 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Novi Pazar to score | 84.5% | 83.0% | +1.5 pp | 1.18 |
| FK Novi Pazar not to score | 15.5% | 17.0% | −1.5 pp | 6.45 |
| FK Mačva Šabac to score | 73.9% | 58.9% | +15.0 pp | 1.35 |
| FK Mačva Šabac not to score | 26.1% | 41.1% | −15.0 pp | 3.83 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 50.0% | +14.0 pp | 1.56 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.0% | 50.0% | −14.0 pp | 2.78 |
| FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals | 53.2% | 55.7% | −2.5 pp | 1.88 |
| FK Novi Pazar at most 1 goal | 46.8% | 44.3% | +2.5 pp | 2.14 |
| FK Mačva Šabac 2+ goals | 35.7% | 25.0% | +10.7 pp | 2.80 |
| FK Mačva Šabac at most 1 goal | 64.3% | 75.0% | −10.7 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | 76.6% | +6.8 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.6% | 23.4% | −6.8 pp | 6.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 53.9% | +4.6 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 46.1% | −4.6 pp | 2.41 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- FK Mačva Šabac sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- FK Mačva Šabac has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.