Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Radnik Surdulica 3:1 FK Čukarički
FK Radnik Surdulica were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was FK Čukarički's attack: 2.70 xG against 1.02 projected (+1.68).
The model against the result
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- FK Čukarički
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Čukarički produced 1.68 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 18
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 6
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.15
Recent form
1.11 xG created 1.19 xGA
- D 0.69 created, 0.74 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 1.91 created, 2.48 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 0.79 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.77 created, 1.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 0.62 created, 1.17 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
1.62 xG created 1.65 xGA
- L 1.78 created, 1.39 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- W 1.16 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- W 2.37 created, 1.94 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- W 1.66 created, 0.57 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.02 created, 2.53 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 1.74 created, 1.84 conceded against FK Vojvodina
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.40 | +4.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 45.4% | 43.4% | +2.0 pp | 2.20 |
| Draw | 30.8% | 27.4% | +3.4 pp | 3.24 |
| FK Čukarički | 23.8% | 29.2% | −5.4 pp | 4.21 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 51.5% | +3.3 pp | 1.83 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.2% | 48.5% | −3.3 pp | 2.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | 70.9% | +4.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 29.1% | −4.0 pp | 3.99 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 46.1% | −0.2 pp | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 53.9% | +0.2 pp | 1.85 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- FK Čukarički sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.