Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 19:00
Full timeFK Železničar Pančevo 5:1 FK Radnik Surdulica
A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 35%. FK Železničar Pančevo won 5–1.
The model against the result
- FK Železničar Pančevo
- 35% What happened
- Draw
- 35%
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.00 xG created 1.30 xGA
- W 1.78 created, 0.51 conceded against OFK Beograd
- D 0.53 created, 0.48 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- D 0.56 created, 1.12 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 0.92 created, 1.05 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- D 1.87 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- L 0.33 created, 3.41 conceded against FK Vojvodina
1.11 xG created 1.19 xGA
- D 0.69 created, 0.74 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 1.91 created, 2.48 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 0.79 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.77 created, 1.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 0.62 created, 1.17 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.30 | +15.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +12.0% | Lost |
| FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +11.0% | Lost |
| FK Železničar Pančevo not to score | 3.50 | +9.0% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.00 | +4.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železničar Pančevo | 34.9% | 43.4% | −8.5 pp | 2.86 |
| Draw | 35.1% | 28.3% | +6.8 pp | 2.85 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 30.0% | 28.3% | +1.7 pp | 3.33 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železničar Pančevo to score | 68.9% | 73.1% | −4.3 pp | 1.45 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo not to score | 31.1% | 26.9% | +4.3 pp | 3.21 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 65.5% | 64.5% | +1.0 pp | 1.53 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica not to score | 34.5% | 35.5% | −1.0 pp | 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 50.0% | −2.9 pp | 2.12 |
| Both teams not to score | 52.8% | 50.0% | +2.8 pp | 1.89 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals | 29.3% | 41.1% | −11.8 pp | 3.41 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal | 70.7% | 58.9% | +11.8 pp | 1.41 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 25.9% | 29.1% | −3.2 pp | 3.87 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica at most 1 goal | 74.1% | 70.9% | +3.2 pp | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | 68.7% | −3.4 pp | 1.53 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 31.3% | +3.4 pp | 2.88 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.1% | 44.7% | −10.6 pp | 2.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 55.3% | +10.6 pp | 1.52 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Železničar Pančevo sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.