Monday, 07/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeOFK Beograd 1:1 FK IMT Beograd
FK IMT Beograd were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- OFK Beograd
- 26%
- Draw
- 33% What happened
- FK IMT Beograd
- 41%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.30 xG created 2.00 xGA
- L 1.78 created, 2.24 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- L 0.29 created, 2.15 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- D 1.02 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- W 2.84 created, 2.45 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- L 0.57 created, 1.66 conceded against FK Čukarički
- L 1.32 created, 2.71 conceded against FK Partizan
1.89 xG created 1.06 xGA
- D 0.58 created, 1.12 conceded against FK TSC Bačka Topola
- W 1.39 created, 1.78 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.98 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 2.25 created, 0.71 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 2.87 created, 0.54 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 0.30 created, 2.23 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd to win | 3.00 | +22.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.20 | +4.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Beograd | 26.4% | 39.7% | −13.3 pp | 3.79 |
| Draw | 32.7% | 29.2% | +3.6 pp | 3.06 |
| FK IMT Beograd | 40.9% | 31.1% | +9.8 pp | 2.45 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 48.5% | +3.1 pp | 1.94 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.4% | 51.5% | −3.1 pp | 2.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | 66.3% | +4.6 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 33.7% | −4.6 pp | 3.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 41.8% | −1.1 pp | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 58.2% | +1.1 pp | 1.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- OFK Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.