Servette FC 1:1 FC Luzern: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Swiss Super League

Servette FC Home 1.64 xG · 23 shots

FC Luzern Away 1.23 xG · 7 shots

11 Servette FC had the better chances, but it finished level

Servette FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

14' Miroslav Stevanović Servette FC · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
31' Andrejs Cigaņiks FC Luzern · 0.42 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Servette FC: 48%
Draw: 28% What happened
FC Luzern: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Servette FC 1.67 1.64 -0.03

FC Luzern 1.16 1.23 +0.07

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Servette FC FC Luzern

Shots: 23; 7
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 18; 5
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.18
Open play xG: 1.02; 0.47
Set-piece xG: 0.45; 0.77
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.49 for Servette FC and 1.23 for FC Luzern.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.71 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Servette FC
FC Luzern
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Servette FC

1.75 xG created 0.91 xGA

D 2.26 created, 0.74 conceded against FC Luzern
W 1.39 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 2.03 created, 0.18 conceded against FC Zürich
L 1.14 created, 1.61 conceded against Basel
L 1.53 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.15 created, 0.97 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich

FC Luzern

1.67 xG created 1.78 xGA

W 2.16 created, 1.76 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.33 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Winterthur
L 2.53 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Thun
L 0.51 created, 2.83 conceded against FC Sion
D 1.51 created, 3.24 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 0.98 created, 0.41 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Servette FC: 1 won · 3 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Servette FC against FC Luzern before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+20.8%	Won
Draw	4.00	+13.4%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+11.8%	Lost
Servette FC at most 1 goal	2.25	+9.5%	Won
FC Luzern not to score	3.75	+7.0%	Lost
Servette FC not to score	6.50	+6.8%	Lost
FC Luzern at most 1 goal	1.57	+5.7%	Won
Both teams not to score	2.63	+1.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Servette FC	47.9%	51.0%	−3.1 pp	2.09
Draw	28.3%	23.6%	+4.8 pp	3.53
FC Luzern	23.8%	25.5%	−1.7 pp	4.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Servette FC to score	83.6%	85.4%	−1.8 pp	1.20
Servette FC not to score	16.4%	14.6%	+1.8 pp	6.09
FC Luzern to score	71.5%	75.0%	−3.5 pp	1.40
FC Luzern not to score	28.5%	25.0%	+3.5 pp	3.50
Both teams to score	61.3%	64.5%	−3.2 pp	1.63
Both teams not to score	38.7%	35.5%	+3.2 pp	2.59
Servette FC 2+ goals	51.3%	58.9%	−7.6 pp	1.95
Servette FC at most 1 goal	48.7%	41.1%	+7.6 pp	2.05
FC Luzern 2+ goals	32.7%	41.1%	−8.4 pp	3.06
FC Luzern at most 1 goal	67.3%	58.9%	+8.4 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	81.4%	84.2%	−2.8 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.6%	15.8%	+2.8 pp	5.37
Over 2.5 goals	55.3%	65.2%	−9.9 pp	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	44.7%	34.8%	+9.9 pp	2.23

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Servette FC sample: 20 matches
FC Luzern sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.