Bukovyna Chernivtsi 3:0 Dynamo Kyiv: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Bukovyna Chernivtsi Home 1.42 xG

Dynamo Kyiv Away 2.62 xG

30 The result went against the chances

Dynamo Kyiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. Bukovyna Chernivtsi won 3–0. The biggest difference was Dynamo Kyiv's attack: 2.62 xG against 1.92 projected (+0.70).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Bukovyna Chernivtsi: 25% What happened
Draw: 26%
Dynamo Kyiv: 49%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Bukovyna Chernivtsi 1.39 1.42 +0.03

Dynamo Kyiv 1.92 2.62 +0.70

Dynamo Kyiv produced 0.70 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Bukovyna Chernivtsi Dynamo Kyiv

Shots: 10; 28
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 5; 14
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bukovyna Chernivtsi

2.11 xG created 1.83 xGA

D 0.22 created, 3.49 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
D 3.27 created, 0.04 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
L 2.83 created, 1.96 conceded against Karpaty Lviv

Dynamo Kyiv

1.88 xG created 1.13 xGA

L 1.56 created, 1.45 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
D 0.90 created, 1.18 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
W 1.74 created, 1.43 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
W 2.65 created, 0.73 conceded against SC Poltava
W 2.77 created, 1.63 conceded against Veres Rivne
W 1.64 created, 0.37 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Bukovyna Chernivtsi against Dynamo Kyiv before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals	4.50	+87.9%	Won
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win	6.00	+52.6%	Won
Both teams to score	2.10	+46.1%	Lost
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score	1.80	+40.4%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	+29.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+13.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi	25.4%	15.1%	+10.4 pp	3.93
Draw	25.8%	23.8%	+2.0 pp	3.87
Dynamo Kyiv	48.7%	61.1%	−12.4 pp	2.05

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score	78.0%	51.5%	+26.6 pp	1.28
Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to score	22.0%	48.5%	−26.6 pp	4.55
Dynamo Kyiv to score	87.5%	81.4%	+6.1 pp	1.14
Dynamo Kyiv not to score	12.5%	18.6%	−6.1 pp	7.98
Both teams to score	69.6%	44.3%	+25.3 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.4%	55.7%	−25.3 pp	3.29
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals	41.8%	20.6%	+21.2 pp	2.39
Bukovyna Chernivtsi at most 1 goal	58.2%	79.4%	−21.2 pp	1.72
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals	59.3%	55.7%	+3.5 pp	1.69
Dynamo Kyiv at most 1 goal	40.7%	44.3%	−3.5 pp	2.45
Over 1.5 goals	87.8%	73.1%	+14.7 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.2%	26.9%	−14.7 pp	8.22
Over 2.5 goals	66.5%	48.7%	+17.8 pp	1.50
Under 2.5 goals	33.5%	51.3%	−17.8 pp	2.98

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Bukovyna Chernivtsi sample: 3 matches
Dynamo Kyiv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Bukovyna Chernivtsi has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.