Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 12:15
Full timeChornomorets Odesa 1:0 FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Chornomorets Odesa won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih's attack: 1.84 xG against 1.33 projected (+0.51). Chornomorets Odesa produced 1.01 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.31).
The model against the result
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 34% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 35%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih produced 0.51 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 21
- On target
- 10
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.09
Recent form
1.66 xG created 2.17 xGA
- L 1.01 created, 3.98 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 2.67 created, 1.12 conceded against SC Poltava
- W 1.24 created, 0.83 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.51 created, 2.24 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 1.20 created, 1.19 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- L 2.34 created, 3.67 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +1.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets Odesa | 34.4% | 30.0% | +4.5 pp | 2.90 |
| Draw | 30.6% | 27.2% | +3.4 pp | 3.27 |
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | 34.9% | 42.8% | −7.9 pp | 2.86 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | 73.1% | +5.5 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.4% | 26.9% | −5.5 pp | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 48.7% | +2.3 pp | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 51.3% | −2.3 pp | 2.04 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 1 match
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.