FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 1:1 Karpaty Lviv: xG & match report · Ukrainian Premier League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Ukrainian Premier League

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv Home 0.37 xG

Karpaty Lviv Away 1.42 xG

11 Karpaty Lviv had the better chances, but it finished level

Karpaty Lviv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv's attack: 0.37 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.82).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv: 32%
Draw: 32% What happened
Karpaty Lviv: 36%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 1.19 0.37 -0.82

Karpaty Lviv 1.28 1.42 +0.14

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv produced 0.82 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv Karpaty Lviv

Shots: 6; 14
On target: 1; 7
Inside the box: 2; 8
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv

1.24 xG created 0.57 xGA

D 1.16 created, 0.36 conceded against Oleksandria
W 1.40 created, 0.69 conceded against Oleksandria
D 1.16 created, 0.67 conceded against Kudrivka

Karpaty Lviv

1.92 xG created 1.79 xGA

L 0.83 created, 1.24 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
D 1.53 created, 1.28 conceded against Metalist 1925
W 2.38 created, 1.43 conceded against Veres Rivne
W 3.67 created, 2.34 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
W 1.16 created, 1.60 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
W 1.96 created, 2.83 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv against Karpaty Lviv before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals	3.25	+10.5%	Lost
Draw	3.30	+5.2%	Won
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to score	1.44	+4.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.90	+3.1%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+2.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv	32.0%	29.7%	+2.3 pp	3.13
Draw	31.9%	27.0%	+4.9 pp	3.14
Karpaty Lviv	36.1%	43.4%	−7.2 pp	2.77

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to score	72.5%	64.5%	+8.0 pp	1.38
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv not to score	27.5%	35.5%	−8.0 pp	3.64
Karpaty Lviv to score	74.7%	73.1%	+1.6 pp	1.34
Karpaty Lviv not to score	25.3%	26.9%	−1.6 pp	3.96
Both teams to score	56.1%	50.0%	+6.1 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.9%	50.0%	−6.1 pp	2.28
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals	34.0%	29.1%	+4.9 pp	2.94
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal	66.0%	70.9%	−4.9 pp	1.52
Karpaty Lviv 2+ goals	37.2%	41.1%	−3.9 pp	2.69
Karpaty Lviv at most 1 goal	62.8%	58.9%	+3.9 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	73.1%	+1.8 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	26.9%	−1.8 pp	3.98
Over 2.5 goals	45.8%	50.0%	−4.2 pp	2.19
Under 2.5 goals	54.2%	50.0%	+4.2 pp	1.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv sample: 3 matches
Karpaty Lviv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.