Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 15:00
7d 13h to kick-offKolos Kovalivka – FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 40%
- Draw
- 30%
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 30%
| Kolos Kovalivka | Draw | FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.51 | 3.29 | 3.36 |
- Total goals
- 2.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Kolos Kovalivka
40% Kolos Kovalivka to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 12th
- Kolos Kovalivka attack v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 9th
- Kolos Kovalivka defence v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.53 vs +0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.23
- Kolos Kovalivka v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kolos Kovalivka | FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.34 · 10th | (better) 1.74 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.69 · 11th | (better) 1.17 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.34 · 10th | (better) +0.57 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.15 · 10th | (better) 1.72 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.53 | (better) +0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet
- 26%
- Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kolos Kovalivka
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.