IF Gnistan 1:1 TPS: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

IF Gnistan Home

TPS Away

IF Gnistan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Gnistan: 44%
Draw: 27% What happened
TPS: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Gnistan

2.06 xG created 1.79 xGA

W 4.54 created, 0.60 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.33 created, 1.19 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.78 created, 3.74 conceded against Inter Turku
L 2.27 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
D 1.02 created, 2.63 conceded against SJK
W 1.40 created, 1.43 conceded against HJK

TPS

1.54 xG created 2.12 xGA

L 0.98 created, 3.33 conceded against Ilves
L 1.25 created, 2.36 conceded against HJK
W 1.73 created, 2.08 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 2.01 created, 1.69 conceded against KuPS
W 2.26 created, 0.97 conceded against VPS
D 1.03 created, 2.27 conceded against Inter Turku

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Gnistan: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

TPS 1:1 IF Gnistan 24/04/2026 xG 0.55 – 0.88

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Gnistan against TPS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
TPS 2+ goals	2.50	+3.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+3.2%	Won
Draw	3.70	+1.2%	Won
TPS to score	1.30	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Gnistan	44.5%	49.3%	−4.8 pp	2.25
Draw	27.3%	24.6%	+2.7 pp	3.66
TPS	28.2%	26.1%	+2.1 pp	3.55

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Gnistan to score	84.7%	82.8%	+1.9 pp	1.18
IF Gnistan not to score	15.3%	17.2%	−1.9 pp	6.55
TPS to score	77.7%	72.3%	+5.4 pp	1.29
TPS not to score	22.3%	27.7%	−5.4 pp	4.48
Both teams to score	67.3%	60.8%	+6.5 pp	1.49
Both teams not to score	32.7%	39.2%	−6.5 pp	3.06
IF Gnistan 2+ goals	53.7%	55.7%	−2.1 pp	1.86
IF Gnistan at most 1 goal	46.3%	44.3%	+2.1 pp	2.16
TPS 2+ goals	41.3%	37.5%	+3.8 pp	2.42
TPS at most 1 goal	58.7%	62.5%	−3.8 pp	1.70
Over 1.5 goals	85.6%	81.1%	+4.5 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.4%	18.9%	−4.5 pp	6.93
Over 2.5 goals	62.3%	59.9%	+2.4 pp	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	37.7%	40.1%	−2.4 pp	2.65

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Gnistan sample: 20 matches
TPS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.