IFK Mariehamn 2:0 FF Jaro: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Veikkausliiga

IFK Mariehamn Home 1.15 xG

FF Jaro Away 2.22 xG

20 The result went against the chances

FF Jaro were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. IFK Mariehamn won 2–0. The biggest difference was FF Jaro's attack: 2.22 xG against 1.70 projected (+0.52). IFK Mariehamn produced 1.15 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.31).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IFK Mariehamn: 31% What happened
Draw: 27%
FF Jaro: 42%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IFK Mariehamn 1.46 1.15 -0.31

FF Jaro 1.70 2.22 +0.52

FF Jaro produced 0.52 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IFK Mariehamn FF Jaro

Shots: 10; 15
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 5; 13
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.15

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IFK Mariehamn

1.72 xG created 2.11 xGA

L 0.41 created, 3.36 conceded against FC Lahti
D 2.55 created, 2.72 conceded against AC Oulu
L 2.08 created, 1.73 conceded against TPS
L 1.53 created, 2.04 conceded against Ilves
W 2.28 created, 0.85 conceded against SJK
W 1.47 created, 1.97 conceded against KuPS

FF Jaro

1.25 xG created 1.58 xGA

D 0.65 created, 1.62 conceded against Inter Turku
W 1.61 created, 1.42 conceded against SJK
L 0.42 created, 1.89 conceded against FC Lahti
L 2.97 created, 1.98 conceded against VPS
L 0.91 created, 1.87 conceded against HJK
L 0.93 created, 0.68 conceded against AC Oulu

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IFK Mariehamn: 1 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IFK Mariehamn against FF Jaro before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FF Jaro 2+ goals	2.50	+31.4%	Lost
FF Jaro to win	2.90	+21.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+10.3%	Lost
FF Jaro to score	1.30	+9.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+7.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+3.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IFK Mariehamn	30.7%	43.0%	−12.3 pp	3.26
Draw	27.4%	25.8%	+1.6 pp	3.65
FF Jaro	41.9%	31.2%	+10.7 pp	2.39

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IFK Mariehamn to score	79.3%	78.3%	+1.0 pp	1.26
IFK Mariehamn not to score	20.7%	21.7%	−1.0 pp	4.84
FF Jaro to score	84.2%	72.3%	+11.9 pp	1.19
FF Jaro not to score	15.8%	27.7%	−11.9 pp	6.35
Both teams to score	68.3%	57.7%	+10.6 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.7%	42.3%	−10.6 pp	3.15
IFK Mariehamn 2+ goals	44.0%	46.3%	−2.3 pp	2.27
IFK Mariehamn at most 1 goal	56.0%	53.7%	+2.3 pp	1.79
FF Jaro 2+ goals	52.5%	37.5%	+15.0 pp	1.90
FF Jaro at most 1 goal	47.5%	62.5%	−15.0 pp	2.11
Over 1.5 goals	86.1%	78.3%	+7.8 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.9%	21.7%	−7.8 pp	7.19
Over 2.5 goals	63.2%	55.3%	+7.9 pp	1.58
Under 2.5 goals	36.8%	44.7%	−7.9 pp	2.72

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IFK Mariehamn sample: 20 matches
FF Jaro sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.