Inter Turku 1:0 KuPS: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Veikkausliiga

Inter Turku Home

KuPS Away

Inter Turku were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 1–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Inter Turku: 42% What happened
Draw: 29%
KuPS: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Inter Turku

2.51 xG created 1.05 xGA

W 3.53 created, 0.05 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 1.62 created, 0.65 conceded against FF Jaro
L 3.74 created, 1.78 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 0.87 created, 0.99 conceded against VPS
D 3.02 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Lahti
D 2.27 created, 1.03 conceded against TPS

KuPS

1.96 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 3.31 created, 0.80 conceded against SJK
W 2.42 created, 1.08 conceded against VPS
W 1.17 created, 2.27 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 1.69 created, 2.01 conceded against TPS
W 1.17 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.97 created, 1.47 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Inter Turku: 0 won · 2 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Inter Turku against KuPS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.75	+10.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.90	+6.2%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+5.2%	Lost
Inter Turku 2+ goals	2.20	+4.5%	Lost
KuPS to score	1.36	+2.8%	Lost
Inter Turku to score	1.25	+1.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Inter Turku	41.6%	41.1%	+0.5 pp	2.40
Draw	29.1%	28.0%	+1.1 pp	3.43
KuPS	29.3%	30.8%	−1.6 pp	3.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Inter Turku to score	81.5%	75.0%	+6.5 pp	1.23
Inter Turku not to score	18.5%	25.0%	−6.5 pp	5.41
KuPS to score	75.4%	68.7%	+6.6 pp	1.33
KuPS not to score	24.6%	31.3%	−6.6 pp	4.06
Both teams to score	63.1%	53.3%	+9.7 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	36.9%	46.7%	−9.7 pp	2.71
Inter Turku 2+ goals	47.5%	42.3%	+5.2 pp	2.11
Inter Turku at most 1 goal	52.5%	57.7%	−5.2 pp	1.90
KuPS 2+ goals	38.0%	35.5%	+2.5 pp	2.63
KuPS at most 1 goal	62.0%	64.5%	−2.5 pp	1.61
Over 1.5 goals	81.8%	73.1%	+8.7 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.2%	26.9%	−8.7 pp	5.50
Over 2.5 goals	55.9%	50.0%	+5.9 pp	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	44.1%	50.0%	−5.9 pp	2.27

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Inter Turku sample: 20 matches
KuPS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.