SJK 1:2 FC Lahti: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

SJK Home 2.19 xG

FC Lahti Away 2.54 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Lahti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Lahti's attack: 2.54 xG against 1.54 projected (+1.00). SJK produced 2.19 xG against 1.50 projected (+0.69).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SJK: 35%
Draw: 28%
FC Lahti: 37% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SJK 1.50 2.19 +0.69

FC Lahti 1.54 2.54 +1.00

FC Lahti produced 1.00 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SJK FC Lahti

Shots: 13; 14
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 9; 9
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.18

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SJK

1.35 xG created 1.96 xGA

L 1.01 created, 1.60 conceded against VPS
L 0.80 created, 3.31 conceded against KuPS
L 1.42 created, 1.61 conceded against FF Jaro
W 1.41 created, 1.92 conceded against HJK
D 2.63 created, 1.02 conceded against IF Gnistan
L 0.85 created, 2.28 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

FC Lahti

1.62 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 0.57 created, 0.85 conceded against HJK
W 3.36 created, 0.41 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 1.38 created, 1.61 conceded against Ilves
W 1.89 created, 0.42 conceded against FF Jaro
D 1.78 created, 3.02 conceded against Inter Turku
L 0.71 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SJK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

FC Lahti 2:3 SJK 13/06/2026 xG 2.26 – 2.61

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SJK against FC Lahti before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.57	+4.8%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+1.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+0.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SJK	34.9%	36.8%	−1.9 pp	2.87
Draw	28.4%	27.1%	+1.3 pp	3.53
FC Lahti	36.8%	36.1%	+0.7 pp	2.72

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SJK to score	80.3%	76.6%	+3.7 pp	1.25
SJK not to score	19.7%	23.4%	−3.7 pp	5.07
FC Lahti to score	81.2%	76.6%	+4.6 pp	1.23
FC Lahti not to score	18.8%	23.4%	−4.6 pp	5.31
Both teams to score	66.7%	58.9%	+7.8 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.3%	41.1%	−7.8 pp	3.01
SJK 2+ goals	45.5%	44.3%	+1.3 pp	2.20
SJK at most 1 goal	54.5%	55.7%	−1.3 pp	1.84
FC Lahti 2+ goals	47.0%	44.3%	+2.7 pp	2.13
FC Lahti at most 1 goal	53.0%	55.7%	−2.7 pp	1.89
Over 1.5 goals	84.6%	78.3%	+6.2 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.4%	21.7%	−6.2 pp	6.47
Over 2.5 goals	60.4%	56.3%	+4.1 pp	1.66
Under 2.5 goals	39.6%	43.7%	−4.1 pp	2.53

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SJK sample: 20 matches
FC Lahti sample: 18 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.