BK Häcken 1:3 Västerås SK: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

BK Häcken Home 2.15 xG

Västerås SK Away 2.23 xG

13 The chances were evenly matched

BK Häcken were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. Västerås SK won 3–1. The biggest difference was Västerås SK's attack: 2.23 xG against 1.22 projected (+1.01). BK Häcken produced 2.15 xG against 1.83 projected (+0.32).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

BK Häcken: 51%
Draw: 27%
Västerås SK: 23% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

BK Häcken 1.83 2.15 +0.32

Västerås SK 1.22 2.23 +1.01

Västerås SK produced 1.01 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

BK Häcken Västerås SK

Shots: 16; 16
On target: 8; 8
Inside the box: 11; 10
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

BK Häcken

1.67 xG created 1.34 xGA

W 1.40 created, 1.12 conceded against Halmstads BK
D 2.96 created, 0.29 conceded against AIK
D 0.92 created, 1.62 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 0.38 created, 3.17 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.78 created, 1.21 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 1.57 created, 0.64 conceded against IK Sirius

Västerås SK

1.90 xG created 1.95 xGA

W 4.21 created, 0.91 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 3.24 created, 0.92 conceded against Örgryte IS
L 1.32 created, 3.93 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
W 0.67 created, 2.64 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 0.99 created, 2.19 conceded against IF Elfsborg
D 0.98 created, 1.11 conceded against Kalmar FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

BK Häcken: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Västerås SK 3:3 BK Häcken 22/04/2026 xG 1.43 – 1.42

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged5 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on BK Häcken against Västerås SK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Västerås SK to win	6.00	+36.4%	Won
BK Häcken not to score	9.00	+24.0%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+20.4%	Lost
BK Häcken at most 1 goal	2.75	+19.5%	Won
Västerås SK 2+ goals	3.25	+14.3%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+6.1%	Lost
Västerås SK to score	1.44	+6.1%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
BK Häcken	50.5%	63.5%	−13.0 pp	1.98
Draw	26.7%	20.9%	+5.9 pp	3.74
Västerås SK	22.7%	15.7%	+7.1 pp	4.40

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
BK Häcken to score	86.2%	89.4%	−3.1 pp	1.16
BK Häcken not to score	13.8%	10.6%	+3.1 pp	7.26
Västerås SK to score	73.5%	64.5%	+9.0 pp	1.36
Västerås SK not to score	26.5%	35.5%	−9.0 pp	3.77
Both teams to score	64.8%	58.9%	+5.9 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.2%	41.1%	−5.9 pp	2.84
BK Häcken 2+ goals	56.5%	66.3%	−9.7 pp	1.77
BK Häcken at most 1 goal	43.5%	33.7%	+9.7 pp	2.30
Västerås SK 2+ goals	35.2%	29.1%	+6.1 pp	2.84
Västerås SK at most 1 goal	64.8%	70.9%	−6.1 pp	1.54
Over 1.5 goals	84.7%	84.2%	+0.5 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.3%	15.8%	−0.5 pp	6.52
Over 2.5 goals	60.7%	65.2%	−4.4 pp	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	39.3%	34.8%	+4.4 pp	2.55

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
BK Häcken sample: 20 matches
Västerås SK sample: 15 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.