Mjällby AIF 0:2 Djurgårdens IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Mjällby AIF Home

Djurgårdens IF Away

Djurgårdens IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 2–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Mjällby AIF: 24%
Draw: 25%
Djurgårdens IF: 51% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Mjällby AIF

1.65 xG created 2.40 xGA

D 1.10 created, 3.43 conceded against IK Sirius
L 4.78 created, 1.28 conceded against AIK
L 0.49 created, 0.68 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.87 created, 3.47 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 1.51 created, 2.56 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.17 created, 3.00 conceded against Djurgårdens IF

Djurgårdens IF

2.45 xG created 0.93 xGA

D 0.73 created, 0.77 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.13 created, 1.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 3.93 created, 1.32 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.64 created, 0.67 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.26 created, 1.49 conceded against AIK
W 3.00 created, 0.17 conceded against Mjällby AIF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Mjällby AIF: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Mjällby AIF against Djurgårdens IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Mjällby AIF 2+ goals	3.00	+24.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+13.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+9.7%	Lost
Mjällby AIF to score	1.40	+8.9%	Lost
Mjällby AIF to win	4.50	+7.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+4.7%	Won
Draw	4.00	+0.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mjällby AIF	23.9%	20.7%	+3.2 pp	4.18
Draw	25.2%	23.3%	+1.8 pp	3.98
Djurgårdens IF	50.9%	56.0%	−5.0 pp	1.96

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mjällby AIF to score	77.8%	66.3%	+11.5 pp	1.29
Mjällby AIF not to score	22.2%	33.7%	−11.5 pp	4.49
Djurgårdens IF to score	88.6%	84.2%	+4.4 pp	1.13
Djurgårdens IF not to score	11.4%	15.8%	−4.4 pp	8.77
Both teams to score	70.2%	57.7%	+12.5 pp	1.43
Both teams not to score	29.8%	42.3%	−12.5 pp	3.35
Mjällby AIF 2+ goals	41.4%	31.3%	+10.1 pp	2.42
Mjällby AIF at most 1 goal	58.6%	68.7%	−10.1 pp	1.71
Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals	61.6%	57.7%	+4.0 pp	1.62
Djurgårdens IF at most 1 goal	38.4%	42.3%	−4.0 pp	2.61
Over 1.5 goals	88.6%	79.2%	+9.4 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.4%	20.8%	−9.4 pp	8.76
Over 2.5 goals	68.0%	58.2%	+9.7 pp	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	32.0%	41.8%	−9.7 pp	3.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Mjällby AIF sample: 20 matches
Djurgårdens IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.