Friday, 28/08/2026 at 19:30
Full timeSC Austria Lustenau 0:4 WSG Tirol
SC Austria Lustenau were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. WSG Tirol won 4–0. The biggest difference was WSG Tirol's attack: 2.60 xG against 1.11 projected (+1.49). SC Austria Lustenau produced 0.93 xG against 1.57 projected (−0.64).
Goals
- 42' Michael Olakigbe WSG Tirol · 0.33 xG chance 0–1
- 52' Nikolai Frederiksen WSG Tirol · 0.07 xG chance 0–2
- 60' Marc Striednig WSG Tirol · 0.02 xG chance 0–3
- 66' Nikolai Frederiksen (pen.) WSG Tirol · 0.82 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- SC Austria Lustenau
- 47%
- Draw
- 29%
- WSG Tirol
- 24% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
WSG Tirol produced 1.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 14
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 5
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 0.76
- 1.02
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.33
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.89 for SC Austria Lustenau and 1.39 for WSG Tirol.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 3.06 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Austria Lustenau
- WSG Tirol
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.36 xG created 2.01 xGA
1.01 xG created 1.77 xGA
- L 0.45 created, 1.73 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- D 0.76 created, 0.38 conceded against FC Blau Weiss Linz
- L 0.30 created, 1.26 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- D 0.87 created, 2.32 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- L 0.84 created, 1.48 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- L 2.81 created, 3.47 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +6.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +6.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Austria Lustenau | 46.5% | 45.6% | +0.9 pp | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.0% | +3.5 pp | 3.39 |
| WSG Tirol | 24.0% | 28.4% | −4.4 pp | 4.17 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 57.7% | +1.7 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.7% | 42.3% | −1.7 pp | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | 79.2% | +0.0 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 20.8% | −0.0 pp | 4.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 57.1% | −5.3 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 42.9% | +5.3 pp | 2.07 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Austria Lustenau sample
- 4 matches
- WSG Tirol sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- SC Austria Lustenau has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.