SK Sturm Graz 1:1 SC Austria Lustenau: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 19:30

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

SK Sturm Graz Home 2.12 xG · 12 shots

SC Austria Lustenau Away 0.96 xG · 17 shots

11 SK Sturm Graz had the better chances, but it finished level

SK Sturm Graz were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

10' Dominik Weixelbraun SC Austria Lustenau · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
65' Seedy Jatta (pen.) SK Sturm Graz · 0.82 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SK Sturm Graz: 60%
Draw: 24% What happened
SC Austria Lustenau: 16%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SK Sturm Graz 2.10 2.12 +0.02

SC Austria Lustenau 1.08 0.96 -0.12

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SK Sturm Graz SC Austria Lustenau

Shots: 12; 17
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 11; 8
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.04
Open play xG: 0.66; 0.50
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.26
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.88 for SK Sturm Graz and 0.73 for SC Austria Lustenau.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.48 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SK Sturm Graz
SC Austria Lustenau
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SK Sturm Graz

2.01 xG created 0.92 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.47 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
W 1.79 created, 1.30 conceded against TSV Hartberg
W 2.75 created, 0.20 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
D 2.32 created, 0.87 conceded against WSG Tirol
W 2.20 created, 0.22 conceded against TSV Hartberg
W 1.53 created, 1.44 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach

SC Austria Lustenau

1.49 xG created 1.97 xGA

D 0.78 created, 2.92 conceded against SV Ried
L 0.56 created, 1.65 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
W 3.13 created, 1.33 conceded against Wolfsberger AC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SK Sturm Graz against SC Austria Lustenau before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Austria Lustenau to win	7.50	+19.5%	Lost
SC Austria Lustenau 2+ goals	4.00	+18.8%	Lost
Draw	5.00	+17.9%	Won
SC Austria Lustenau to score	1.62	+11.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.75	+11.0%	Won
SK Sturm Graz at most 1 goal	3.00	+6.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz	60.5%	68.7%	−8.3 pp	1.65
Draw	23.6%	18.8%	+4.8 pp	4.24
SC Austria Lustenau	15.9%	12.5%	+3.4 pp	6.27

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SK Sturm Graz to score	89.8%	89.4%	+0.4 pp	1.11
SK Sturm Graz not to score	10.2%	10.6%	−0.4 pp	9.77
SC Austria Lustenau to score	69.2%	57.7%	+11.5 pp	1.44
SC Austria Lustenau not to score	30.8%	42.3%	−11.5 pp	3.25
Both teams to score	63.4%	53.3%	+10.1 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.6%	46.7%	−10.1 pp	2.73
SK Sturm Graz 2+ goals	64.4%	68.7%	−4.3 pp	1.55
SK Sturm Graz at most 1 goal	35.6%	31.3%	+4.3 pp	2.81
SC Austria Lustenau 2+ goals	29.7%	23.4%	+6.3 pp	3.37
SC Austria Lustenau at most 1 goal	70.3%	76.6%	−6.3 pp	1.42
Over 1.5 goals	86.3%	82.8%	+3.5 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.7%	17.2%	−3.5 pp	7.30
Over 2.5 goals	63.8%	62.5%	+1.3 pp	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	36.2%	37.5%	−1.3 pp	2.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SK Sturm Graz sample: 20 matches
SC Austria Lustenau sample: 3 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

SC Austria Lustenau has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.