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Expected goals

SK Sturm Graz expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Austrian Bundesliga · after 7 matches · updated 4 Oct

SK Sturm Graz's attacking and defensive expected goals in Austrian Bundesliga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

SK Sturm Graz xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.83 xG per match
#5/12
Attack (xG per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Red Bull Salzburg 2.68
#2 LASK 2.54
#3 SK Rapid Wien 2.26
#4 SV Ried 1.96
#5 SK Sturm Graz 1.83
#6 WSG Tirol 1.52
#7 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.24
#8 SC Austria Lustenau 1.24
#9 Grazer AK 1902 1.14
#10 Wolfsberger AC 1.14
#11 TSV Hartberg 1.01
#12 Austria Wien 0.74
League avg
1.61
Total
12.78 7 matches
Defence
1.29 xGA per match
#4/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 LASK 0.93
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 1.08
#3 SK Rapid Wien 1.10
#4 SK Sturm Graz 1.29
#5 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.33
#6 SV Ried 1.75
#7 Grazer AK 1902 1.75
#8 WSG Tirol 1.76
#9 Austria Wien 1.85
#10 SC Austria Lustenau 1.89
#11 TSV Hartberg 2.02
#12 Wolfsberger AC 2.53
League avg
1.61
Total
9.05 7 matches
xG difference
+0.53 xGD per match
#4/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 LASK +1.60
#2 Red Bull Salzburg +1.60
#3 SK Rapid Wien +1.16
#4 SK Sturm Graz +0.53
#5 SV Ried +0.22
#6 SC Rheindorf Altach -0.08
#7 WSG Tirol -0.24
#8 Grazer AK 1902 -0.61
#9 SC Austria Lustenau -0.65
#10 TSV Hartberg -1.01
#11 Austria Wien -1.12
#12 Wolfsberger AC -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
+3.73 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.70 xPts per match
#4/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 LASK 2.33
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 2.33
#3 SK Rapid Wien 1.95
#4 SK Sturm Graz 1.70
#5 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.42
#6 SV Ried 1.40
#7 WSG Tirol 1.32
#8 Grazer AK 1902 1.20
#9 SC Austria Lustenau 0.93
#10 TSV Hartberg 0.79
#11 Austria Wien 0.77
#12 Wolfsberger AC 0.70
League avg
1.41
Total
11.93 vs 11 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

SK Sturm Graz's underlying numbers are among the best in Austrian Bundesliga. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.53 per match, built on elite shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 8 goals are 4.78 below 12.78 xG, while 11 points are 0.93 below 11.93 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 3.05 xG from penalties
8 12.78 -4.78 scored 4.78 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 9.05 -0.05 conceded 0.05 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
11 11.93 -0.93 0.93 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

SK Sturm Graz are 4.78 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
8
xG
12.78
Gap
-4.78
Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.32 -1.52 -2.05 -3.17 -2.89 -4.29 -4.78 -1.32 -0.20 -0.53 -1.12 +0.28 -1.40 -0.49 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
SK Sturm Graz: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 WSG Tirol 1 2.32 -1.32 -1.32
Sat 08/08 TSV Hartberg 2 2.20 -0.20 -1.52
Sat 15/08 SC Rheindorf Altach 1 1.53 -0.53 -2.05
Sat 22/08 SC Austria Lustenau 1 2.12 -1.12 -3.17
Sun 30/08 SK Rapid Wien 1 0.72 +0.28 -2.89
Sun 13/09 LASK 2 3.40 -1.40 -4.29
Sun 20/09 Red Bull Salzburg 0 0.49 -0.49 -4.78

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

SK Sturm Graz xG trend

Current form +0.13 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 7 matches. The worst was against Red Bull Salzburg on Sun 20/09 (-0.85).

npxG · last 6
1.27
npxGA · last 6
1.14
-1 0 +1 +2 +1.53 Sat 01/08 +1.20 Sat 08/08 +0.31 Sat 15/08 +0.15 Sat 22/08 -0.52 Sun 30/08 +0.49 Sun 13/09 -0.85 Sun 20/09 +0.33 season avg
SK Sturm Graz: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 WSG Tirol 2.13 0.60 +1.53 +1.53
Sat 08/08 TSV Hartberg 1.48 0.28 +1.20 +1.37
Sat 15/08 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.52 1.21 +0.31 +1.01
Sat 22/08 SC Austria Lustenau 0.88 0.73 +0.15 +0.80
Sun 30/08 SK Rapid Wien 0.71 1.23 -0.52 +0.53
Sun 13/09 LASK 2.43 1.94 +0.49 +0.53
Sun 20/09 Red Bull Salzburg 0.58 1.43 -0.85 +0.33

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.39 npxG and 1.06 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 3 hardest of 12 in Austrian Bundesliga
+0.11 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 12 in Austrian Bundesliga
+0.30 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.11 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 3 hardest of 12

  1. Red Bull Salzburg Away +0.74
  2. LASK Home +0.91
  3. SK Rapid Wien Away +0.30
  4. SC Austria Lustenau Home −0.24
  5. SC Rheindorf Altach Home −0.18
  6. TSV Hartberg Away −0.52
  7. WSG Tirol Away −0.25

Last 5

+0.30 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 12

  1. Red Bull Salzburg Away +0.74
  2. LASK Home +0.91
  3. SK Rapid Wien Away +0.30
  4. SC Austria Lustenau Home −0.24
  5. SC Rheindorf Altach Home −0.18

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

SK Sturm Graz shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. SK Sturm Graz take 16.1 shots a match (league 14.1) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =3 in Austrian Bundesliga for volume and #9 for quality. 59% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%), and set pieces produce 23% of their npxG (league 27%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.1 shots per match
=3/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 LASK 21.0
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 20.4
=3 SK Rapid Wien 16.1
=3 SK Sturm Graz 16.1
#5 SV Ried 15.6
#6 SC Austria Lustenau 14.1
#7 Grazer AK 1902 12.7
#8 Wolfsberger AC 11.9
#9 SC Rheindorf Altach 11.7
#10 WSG Tirol 11.0
#11 Austria Wien 9.6
#12 TSV Hartberg 9.0
League avg
14.1
Total
113 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#9/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SK Rapid Wien 0.13
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 0.13
#3 LASK 0.11
#4 SV Ried 0.11
#5 WSG Tirol 0.10
#6 SC Rheindorf Altach 0.10
#7 TSV Hartberg 0.10
#8 Wolfsberger AC 0.09
#9 SK Sturm Graz 0.09
#10 SC Austria Lustenau 0.08
#11 Grazer AK 1902 0.08
#12 Austria Wien 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
9.73 npxG from 113 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.9 shots per match
=6/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 LASK 7.7
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 11.0
#3 SK Rapid Wien 12.1
#4 WSG Tirol 12.4
#5 Austria Wien 13.0
=6 SC Rheindorf Altach 13.9
=6 SK Sturm Graz 13.9
#8 SC Austria Lustenau 15.0
#9 Grazer AK 1902 16.1
#10 SV Ried 17.0
#11 Wolfsberger AC 17.6
#12 TSV Hartberg 19.6
League avg
14.1
Total
97 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#1/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 SK Sturm Graz 0.08
#2 SV Ried 0.09
#3 SK Rapid Wien 0.09
#4 TSV Hartberg 0.09
#5 SC Austria Lustenau 0.09
#6 Red Bull Salzburg 0.09
#7 SC Rheindorf Altach 0.09
#8 Grazer AK 1902 0.10
#9 LASK 0.10
#10 Wolfsberger AC 0.13
#11 Austria Wien 0.14
#12 WSG Tirol 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
7.42 npxGA from 97 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

59% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 67 of 113 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

62% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 60 of 97 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 2.2 of 9.7 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

68% open play · 32% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 2.4 of 7.5 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

SK Sturm Graz home and away xG

SK Sturm Graz per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 2.35 1.43
xGA / match 1.45 1.18
xGD / match +0.90 +0.26
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.96 1.51

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every SK Sturm Graz match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.83
xGA / match
1.29
xGD / match
+0.53
Points
11 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 Red Bull Salzburg A xG 0.49 xGA 1.61 xGD -1.12
  2. Sun 13/09 LASK H xG 3.40 P xGA 1.94 xGD +1.46
  3. Sun 30/08 SK Rapid Wien A Weakest underlying xG 0.72 xGA 2.01 P xGD -1.29
  4. Sat 22/08 SC Austria Lustenau H xG 2.12 P xGA 0.96 xGD +1.16
  5. Sat 15/08 SC Rheindorf Altach H xG 1.53 xGA 1.44 xGD +0.09
  6. Sat 08/08 TSV Hartberg A Best underlying xG 2.20 P xGA 0.22 xGD +1.98
  7. Sat 01/08 WSG Tirol A xG 2.32 xGA 0.87 xGD +1.45

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.40. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

SK Sturm Graz in Austrian Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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