Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 14:30
21d 14h to kick-offSK Sturm Graz – SV Ried
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SK Sturm Graz
- 58%
- Draw
- 25%
- SV Ried
- 17%
| SK Sturm Graz | Draw | SV Ried | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 4.06 | 5.76 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SK Sturm Graz
58% SK Sturm Graz to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 10th
- SK Sturm Graz attack v SV Ried defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 5th
- SK Sturm Graz defence v SV Ried attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.38 vs -0.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.02 – 1.10
- SK Sturm Graz v SV Ried
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SK Sturm Graz | SV Ried |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.83 · 5th | (better) 1.96 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.29 · 4th | 1.75 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 4th | +0.22 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.70 · 4th | 1.40 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.38 | -0.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- SK Sturm Graz clean sheet
- 30%
- SK Sturm Graz 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Sturm Graz sample
- 20 matches
- SV Ried sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SK Sturm Graz
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · SV Ried
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.