Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeRed Bull Salzburg 3:0 SK Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was SK Sturm Graz's attack: 0.49 xG against 1.28 projected (−0.79). Red Bull Salzburg produced 1.61 xG against 1.94 projected (−0.33).
Goals
- 72' Nikolas Veratschnig Red Bull Salzburg · 0.47 xG chance 1–0
- 76' Kévin Boma Red Bull Salzburg · 0.22 xG chance 2–0
- 83' Aboubacar Camara Red Bull Salzburg · 0.13 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 52% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- SK Sturm Graz
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SK Sturm Graz produced 0.79 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 14
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 0.52
- 0.31
- Set-piece xG
- 0.92
- 0.27
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.43 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.58 for SK Sturm Graz.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.02 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Red Bull Salzburg
- SK Sturm Graz
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.85 xG created 1.18 xGA
- W 4.11 created, 0.73 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- D 3.52 created, 0.93 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- W 3.47 created, 2.81 conceded against WSG Tirol
- W 1.71 created, 0.76 conceded against Austria Wien
- W 2.75 created, 1.02 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- D 1.56 created, 0.82 conceded against SV Ried
2.05 xG created 1.24 xGA
- D 2.32 created, 0.87 conceded against WSG Tirol
- W 2.20 created, 0.22 conceded against TSV Hartberg
- W 1.53 created, 1.44 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- D 2.12 created, 0.96 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
- L 0.72 created, 2.01 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- W 3.40 created, 1.94 conceded against LASK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.33 | +11.1% | Lost |
| Red Bull Salzburg at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +5.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | +2.3% | Lost |
| SK Sturm Graz to win | 4.50 | +1.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 51.8% | 57.7% | −5.9 pp | 1.93 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 21.5% | +4.1 pp | 3.90 |
| SK Sturm Graz | 22.6% | 20.7% | +1.8 pp | 4.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg to score | 87.7% | 88.1% | −0.4 pp | 1.14 |
| Red Bull Salzburg not to score | 12.3% | 11.9% | +0.4 pp | 8.14 |
| SK Sturm Graz to score | 74.9% | 72.3% | +2.6 pp | 1.33 |
| SK Sturm Graz not to score | 25.1% | 27.7% | −2.6 pp | 3.99 |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 64.5% | +2.6 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.9% | 35.5% | −2.6 pp | 3.04 |
| Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals | 59.8% | 64.5% | −4.8 pp | 1.67 |
| Red Bull Salzburg at most 1 goal | 40.2% | 35.5% | +4.8 pp | 2.49 |
| SK Sturm Graz 2+ goals | 37.4% | 37.5% | −0.1 pp | 2.67 |
| SK Sturm Graz at most 1 goal | 62.6% | 62.5% | +0.1 pp | 1.60 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.7% | 85.4% | +1.3 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.3% | 14.6% | −1.3 pp | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | 67.3% | −2.8 pp | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 32.7% | +2.8 pp | 2.81 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Red Bull Salzburg sample
- 20 matches
- SK Sturm Graz sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.