Wolfsberger AC 0:3 SK Rapid Wien: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Wolfsberger AC Home 0.77 xG · 12 shots

SK Rapid Wien Away 1.05 xG · 6 shots

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

SK Rapid Wien were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was SK Rapid Wien's attack: 1.05 xG against 1.59 projected (−0.54). Wolfsberger AC produced 0.77 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.35).

Goals

13' Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao SK Rapid Wien · 0.19 xG chance 0–1
35' Nenad Cvetković SK Rapid Wien · 0.13 xG chance 0–2
82' Petter Nosakhare Dahl SK Rapid Wien · 0.26 xG chance 0–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Wolfsberger AC: 24%
Draw: 29%
SK Rapid Wien: 47% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Wolfsberger AC 1.12 0.77 -0.35

SK Rapid Wien 1.59 1.05 -0.54

SK Rapid Wien produced 0.54 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Wolfsberger AC SK Rapid Wien

Shots: 12; 6
On target: 3; 4
Inside the box: 4; 5
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.16
Open play xG: 0.46; 0.61
Set-piece xG: 0.21; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.64 for Wolfsberger AC and 0.91 for SK Rapid Wien.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

18 shots · 1.60 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Wolfsberger AC
SK Rapid Wien
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Wolfsberger AC

0.96 xG created 2.28 xGA

L 0.34 created, 1.73 conceded against SV Ried
W 2.80 created, 0.35 conceded against Austria Wien
D 0.93 created, 3.52 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
L 1.33 created, 3.13 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
D 0.09 created, 2.14 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
L 0.27 created, 2.79 conceded against LASK

SK Rapid Wien

2.35 xG created 1.18 xGA

W 2.17 created, 0.50 conceded against SV Ried
W 1.63 created, 1.29 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
W 1.77 created, 1.07 conceded against SV Ried
W 5.49 created, 0.76 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
W 2.01 created, 0.72 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
L 1.02 created, 2.75 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Wolfsberger AC: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Wolfsberger AC against SK Rapid Wien before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SK Rapid Wien not to score	8.00	+43.0%	Lost
SK Rapid Wien at most 1 goal	2.63	+34.4%	Lost
Wolfsberger AC to win	5.25	+25.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.60	+23.8%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+22.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+22.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wolfsberger AC	23.9%	17.9%	+6.0 pp	4.18
Draw	29.2%	22.4%	+6.9 pp	3.42
SK Rapid Wien	46.8%	59.8%	−12.9 pp	2.13

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Wolfsberger AC to score	70.5%	66.3%	+4.2 pp	1.42
Wolfsberger AC not to score	29.5%	33.7%	−4.2 pp	3.39
SK Rapid Wien to score	82.1%	88.1%	−6.0 pp	1.22
SK Rapid Wien not to score	17.9%	11.9%	+6.0 pp	5.59
Both teams to score	59.6%	60.8%	−1.2 pp	1.68
Both teams not to score	40.4%	39.2%	+1.2 pp	2.47
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals	31.1%	33.7%	−2.6 pp	3.21
Wolfsberger AC at most 1 goal	68.9%	66.3%	+2.6 pp	1.45
SK Rapid Wien 2+ goals	48.8%	64.5%	−15.7 pp	2.05
SK Rapid Wien at most 1 goal	51.2%	35.5%	+15.7 pp	1.95
Over 1.5 goals	79.6%	84.2%	−4.7 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.4%	15.8%	+4.7 pp	4.89
Over 2.5 goals	52.4%	63.8%	−11.4 pp	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.6%	36.2%	+11.4 pp	2.10

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Wolfsberger AC sample: 20 matches
SK Rapid Wien sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.