Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeBayer 04 Leverkusen 2:0 RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was RB Leipzig's attack: 0.97 xG against 1.41 projected (−0.44). Bayer 04 Leverkusen produced 2.27 xG against 2.02 projected (+0.25).
Goals
- 44' Patrik Schick Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.38 xG chance 1–0
- 57' Miguel Gutiérrez Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.14 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- RB Leipzig
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RB Leipzig produced 0.44 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 12
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 14
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 2.11
- 0.54
- Set-piece xG
- 0.12
- 0.30
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.20 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.85 for RB Leipzig.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 3.07 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- RB Leipzig
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.64 xG created 1.46 xGA
- W 4.42 created, 1.17 conceded against RB Leipzig
- L 0.54 created, 3.04 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 3.27 created, 1.79 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.88 created, 1.27 conceded against SV 07 Elversberg
- W 3.11 created, 0.39 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- D 2.64 created, 1.11 conceded against FC Augsburg
1.95 xG created 1.63 xGA
- L 1.17 created, 4.42 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- W 1.37 created, 0.79 conceded against FC St. Pauli
- L 1.24 created, 1.41 conceded against SC Freiburg
- W 3.96 created, 1.09 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
- L 1.50 created, 0.95 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 2.43 created, 1.10 conceded against Hamburger SV
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.20 | +5.1% | Lost |
| RB Leipzig at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +3.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 50.8% | 48.4% | +2.3 pp | 1.97 |
| Draw | 25.0% | 22.5% | +2.5 pp | 4.00 |
| RB Leipzig | 24.2% | 29.1% | −4.8 pp | 4.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score | 88.8% | 86.4% | +2.4 pp | 1.13 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen not to score | 11.2% | 13.6% | −2.4 pp | 8.96 |
| RB Leipzig to score | 78.5% | 78.3% | +0.1 pp | 1.27 |
| RB Leipzig not to score | 21.5% | 21.7% | −0.1 pp | 4.64 |
| Both teams to score | 71.0% | 70.9% | +0.0 pp | 1.41 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.0% | 29.1% | −0.0 pp | 3.44 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals | 62.2% | 62.5% | −0.3 pp | 1.61 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen at most 1 goal | 37.8% | 37.5% | +0.3 pp | 2.64 |
| RB Leipzig 2+ goals | 42.4% | 48.5% | −6.1 pp | 2.36 |
| RB Leipzig at most 1 goal | 57.6% | 51.5% | +6.1 pp | 1.74 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.1% | 86.4% | +2.7 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.9% | 13.6% | −2.7 pp | 9.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | 70.1% | −1.2 pp | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.1% | 29.9% | +1.2 pp | 3.22 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- RB Leipzig sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.