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Expected goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Bundesliga · after 4 matches · updated 1 Oct

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's attacking and defensive expected goals in Bundesliga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.48 xG per match
#2/18
Attack (xG per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FC Bayern München 3.14
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.48
#3 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.24
#4 SC Freiburg 2.22
#5 RB Leipzig 2.22
#6 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.98
#7 1. FC Köln 1.97
#8 VfB Stuttgart 1.89
#9 TSG Hoffenheim 1.83
=10 Borussia M'gladbach 1.72
=10 FC Augsburg 1.72
#12 Borussia Dortmund 1.66
#13 SV 07 Elversberg 1.38
#14 SV Werder Bremen 1.33
#15 FC Schalke 04 1.32
#16 1. FC Union Berlin 1.13
#17 Hamburger SV 0.91
#18 SC Paderborn 07 0.67
League avg
1.77
Total
9.90 4 matches
Defence
0.94 xGA per match
#4/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Bayern München 0.57
#2 SC Freiburg 0.91
#3 Borussia Dortmund 0.93
#4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.94
#5 RB Leipzig 1.35
#6 SC Paderborn 07 1.43
#7 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.55
#8 SV Werder Bremen 1.55
#9 TSG Hoffenheim 1.70
#10 1. FC Köln 1.98
#11 SV 07 Elversberg 2.02
#12 Hamburger SV 2.04
#13 Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05
#14 FC Schalke 04 2.11
#15 FC Augsburg 2.30
#16 1. FC Union Berlin 2.70
#17 VfB Stuttgart 2.75
#18 Borussia M'gladbach 2.92
League avg
1.77
Total
3.74 4 matches
xG difference
+1.54 xGD per match
#2/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FC Bayern München +2.57
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1.54
#3 SC Freiburg +1.31
#4 RB Leipzig +0.86
#5 Borussia Dortmund +0.73
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.69
#7 TSG Hoffenheim +0.13
#8 1. FC Köln -0.01
#9 Eintracht Frankfurt -0.07
#10 SV Werder Bremen -0.22
#11 FC Augsburg -0.58
#12 SV 07 Elversberg -0.64
#13 SC Paderborn 07 -0.77
#14 FC Schalke 04 -0.79
#15 VfB Stuttgart -0.86
#16 Hamburger SV -1.12
#17 Borussia M'gladbach -1.20
#18 1. FC Union Berlin -1.57
League avg
0.00
Total
+6.16 4 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.34 xPts per match
#2/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FC Bayern München 2.76
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.34
#3 SC Freiburg 2.26
#4 Borussia Dortmund 1.95
#5 RB Leipzig 1.85
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.82
#7 TSG Hoffenheim 1.48
#8 1. FC Köln 1.40
#9 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.36
#10 SV Werder Bremen 1.16
#11 VfB Stuttgart 1.01
#12 FC Augsburg 0.99
#13 SV 07 Elversberg 0.98
#14 FC Schalke 04 0.92
#15 Borussia M'gladbach 0.83
#16 SC Paderborn 07 0.72
#17 Hamburger SV 0.71
#18 1. FC Union Berlin 0.70
League avg
1.40
Total
9.37 vs 7 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 4 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's underlying numbers are among the best in Bundesliga. They rank #2 for xG difference at +1.54 per match, driven by the league's highest shot volume at about average chance quality. After only 4 matches, treat every figure here as provisional.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
10 9.90 +0.10 Too early to read
Goals conceded vs xGA
5 3.74 +1.26 Too early to read
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
7 9.37 -2.37 Too early to read

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are 0.10 goals above their xG after 4 matches. The gap was widest at +1.01, against 1. FC Union Berlin on Sat 05/09.

Goals
10
xG
9.90
Gap
+0.10
Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.12 +1.01 +0.37 +0.10 +0.12 +0.89 -0.64 -0.27 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 29/08 SV 07 Elversberg 2 1.88 +0.12 +0.12
Sat 05/09 1. FC Union Berlin 4 3.11 +0.89 +1.01
Sat 12/09 FC Augsburg 2 2.64 -0.64 +0.37
Sun 20/09 RB Leipzig 2 2.27 -0.27 +0.10

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Bayer 04 Leverkusen xG trend

Current form +1.53 npxGD per match

All 4 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 4 matches.

npxG · last 4
2.40
npxGA · last 4
0.87
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.90 Sat 29/08 +2.54 Sat 05/09 +1.33 Sat 12/09 +1.35 Sun 20/09 +1.53 season avg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 29/08 SV 07 Elversberg 2.02 1.12 +0.90 +0.90
Sat 05/09 1. FC Union Berlin 2.95 0.41 +2.54 +1.72
Sat 12/09 FC Augsburg 2.42 1.09 +1.33 +1.59
Sun 20/09 RB Leipzig 2.20 0.85 +1.35 +1.53

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.40 npxG and 0.87 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 15 hardest of 18 in Bundesliga
−0.18 xG vs league average
Over 4 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.18 xG vs league average · over 4 matches · number 15 hardest of 18

  1. RB Leipzig Home +0.41
  2. FC Augsburg Away −0.39
  3. 1. FC Union Berlin Home −0.38
  4. SV 07 Elversberg Away −0.36

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Bayer 04 Leverkusen shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. Bayer 04 Leverkusen take 22.5 shots a match (league 15.5) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #1 in Bundesliga for volume and #11 for quality. 71% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 27% of their npxG (league 26%).

Attack

Shot volume
22.5 shots per match
#1/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 22.5
#2 FC Bayern München 21.8
=3 SC Freiburg 19.0
=3 TSG Hoffenheim 19.0
#5 RB Leipzig 18.8
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 18.3
#7 1. FC Köln 17.3
#8 Borussia M'gladbach 16.5
#9 VfB Stuttgart 15.3
#10 Borussia Dortmund 14.5
#11 FC Augsburg 14.0
=12 Eintracht Frankfurt 13.8
=12 SV Werder Bremen 13.8
=14 1. FC Union Berlin 11.8
=14 FC Schalke 04 11.8
=14 SC Paderborn 07 11.8
#17 SV 07 Elversberg 10.3
#18 Hamburger SV 9.5
League avg
15.5
Total
90 shots from 4 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#11/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SV 07 Elversberg 0.14
#2 FC Bayern München 0.13
#3 RB Leipzig 0.13
#4 FC Augsburg 0.12
#5 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.12
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.12
#7 Borussia Dortmund 0.12
#8 FC Schalke 04 0.11
#9 VfB Stuttgart 0.11
#10 SC Freiburg 0.11
#11 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.11
#12 1. FC Köln 0.11
#13 1. FC Union Berlin 0.10
#14 Hamburger SV 0.10
#15 TSG Hoffenheim 0.08
#16 SV Werder Bremen 0.08
#17 Borussia M'gladbach 0.08
#18 SC Paderborn 07 0.06
League avg
0.11
Total
9.59 npxG from 90 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.0 shots per match
#2/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Bayern München 5.8
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 9.0
#3 SC Freiburg 9.5
#4 Borussia Dortmund 12.0
#5 1. FSV Mainz 05 12.5
#6 RB Leipzig 13.8
#7 TSG Hoffenheim 14.5
#8 SV Werder Bremen 15.0
#9 1. FC Köln 15.8
#10 FC Schalke 04 17.5
#11 VfB Stuttgart 18.0
=12 Hamburger SV 18.5
=12 SC Paderborn 07 18.5
=14 1. FC Union Berlin 18.8
=14 Borussia M'gladbach 18.8
#16 Eintracht Frankfurt 19.0
#17 FC Augsburg 20.8
#18 SV 07 Elversberg 21.8
League avg
15.5
Total
36 shots allowed from 4 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#8/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Borussia Dortmund 0.07
#2 SC Freiburg 0.07
#3 SC Paderborn 07 0.08
#4 SV 07 Elversberg 0.09
#5 SV Werder Bremen 0.09
#6 RB Leipzig 0.09
#7 FC Augsburg 0.10
#8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.10
#9 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.10
#10 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.10
#11 FC Bayern München 0.10
#12 1. FC Köln 0.11
#13 TSG Hoffenheim 0.12
#14 Hamburger SV 0.12
#15 FC Schalke 04 0.12
#16 1. FC Union Berlin 0.13
#17 VfB Stuttgart 0.15
#18 Borussia M'gladbach 0.16
League avg
0.11
Total
3.47 npxGA from 36 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

71% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 64 of 90 shots over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 22 of 36 shots allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

73% open play · 27% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 2.6 of 9.7 npxG over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

75% open play · 25% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 0.9 of 3.4 npxG allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Bayer 04 Leverkusen home and away xG

Bayer 04 Leverkusen per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 2 2
xG / match 2.69 2.26
xGA / match 0.68 1.19
xGD / match +2.01 +1.07
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.58 2.11

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Bayer 04 Leverkusen match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
2
xG / match
2.26
xGA / match
1.19
xGD / match
+1.07
Points
1 of 6
  1. Sat 12/09 FC Augsburg A xG 2.64 xGA 1.11 xGD +1.53
  2. Sat 29/08 SV 07 Elversberg A xG 1.88 xGA 1.27 xGD +0.61

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Bayer 04 Leverkusen in Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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