Bundesliga expected points table 2026/2027
Every Bundesliga club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
FC Bayern München lead on expected points with 11.04 over 4 matches with xG. That is 1.66 clear of Bayer 04 Leverkusen. FC Augsburg sit 8 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 4 against 12 on expected points. TSG Hoffenheim sit 7 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 14 against 7 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München FCB | 4 | 10 | 11.04 | −1.04 | 2 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 | 4 | 7 | 9.37 | −2.37 | 5 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | SC Freiburg SCF | 4 | 10 | 9.04 | +0.96 | 3 | Same place as on expected points |
| 4 | Borussia Dortmund BVB | 4 | 12 | 7.80 | +4.20 | 1 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 5 | RB Leipzig RBL | 4 | 6 | 7.41 | −1.41 | 9 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 M05 | 4 | 7 | 7.27 | −0.27 | 6 | Same place as on expected points |
| 7 | TSG Hoffenheim TSG | 4 | 3 | 5.91 | −2.91 | 14 | 7 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | 1. FC Köln KOE | 4 | 4 | 5.61 | −1.61 | 13 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt SGE | 4 | 5 | 5.45 | −0.45 | 10 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 10 | SV Werder Bremen SVW | 4 | 7 | 4.62 | +2.38 | 8 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart VFB | 4 | 3 | 4.03 | −1.03 | 15 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 12 | FC Augsburg FCA | 4 | 7 | 3.97 | +3.03 | 4 | 8 places above its expected-points rank |
| 13 | SV 07 Elversberg SVE | 4 | 7 | 3.93 | +3.07 | 7 | 6 places above its expected-points rank |
| 14 | FC Schalke 04 S04 | 4 | 5 | 3.67 | +1.33 | 11 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 15 | Borussia M'gladbach BMG | 4 | 0 | 3.30 | −3.30 | 18 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 16 | SC Paderborn 07 SCP | 4 | 4 | 2.87 | +1.13 | 12 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 17 | Hamburger SV HSV | 4 | 3 | 2.83 | +0.17 | 16 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 18 | 1. FC Union Berlin FCU | 4 | 1 | 2.78 | −1.78 | 17 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.