Bundesliga

Bundesliga results 2026/2027

Every Bundesliga match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 27 matches (44%). The probabilities implied about 13 (49%). Brier score 0.61 (reference 0.64; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

3 matches

19:30

SC Paderborn 07 3

TSG Hoffenheim 1

xG 0.68 – 1.50 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
17:30

FC Schalke 04 0

SV 07 Elversberg 0

xG 1.01 – 1.01 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
15:30

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2

RB Leipzig 0

xG 2.27 – 0.97 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 19/09/2026

5 matches

18:30

VfB Stuttgart 0

Borussia Dortmund 1

xG 1.15 – 1.33 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→
15:30

SV Werder Bremen 3

FC Augsburg 2

xG 2.78 – 1.12 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

Hamburger SV 2

1. FC Köln 1

xG 1.45 – 1.41 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→
15:30

Borussia M'gladbach 3

1. FSV Mainz 05 4

xG 3.24 – 2.82 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

Eintracht Frankfurt 2

SC Freiburg 2

xG 2.18 – 3.09 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Friday, 18/09/2026

1 match

20:30

FC Bayern München 7

1. FC Union Berlin 0

xG 3.71 – 0.34 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Sunday, 13/09/2026

2 matches

17:30

SV 07 Elversberg 1

FC Bayern München 2

xG 0.94 – 2.83 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

RB Leipzig 5

Hamburger SV 0

xG 2.43 – 1.10 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 12/09/2026

6 matches

18:30

1. FC Köln 1

SV Werder Bremen 1

xG 1.65 – 1.12 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→
15:30

SC Freiburg 5

Borussia M'gladbach 0

xG 2.60 – 0.19 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

Borussia Dortmund 3

SC Paderborn 07 0

xG 1.76 – 0.49 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

TSG Hoffenheim 2

VfB Stuttgart 1

xG 2.76 – 2.16 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

FC Augsburg 2

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2

xG 1.11 – 2.64 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
15:30

1. FSV Mainz 05 1

Eintracht Frankfurt 3

xG 2.12 – 2.04 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

20:30

1. FC Union Berlin 1

FC Schalke 04 3

xG 1.95 – 2.52 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Sunday, 06/09/2026

2 matches

17:30

Eintracht Frankfurt 1

FC Augsburg 4

xG 2.22 – 1.13 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

→
15:30

Hamburger SV 0

1. FSV Mainz 05 5

xG 0.19 – 2.77 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

→

Saturday, 05/09/2026

6 matches

18:30

FC Schalke 04 0

FC Bayern München 0

xG 0.21 – 1.94 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
15:30

SV Werder Bremen 3

RB Leipzig 1

xG 0.95 – 1.50 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

→
15:30

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4

1. FC Union Berlin 0

xG 3.11 – 0.39 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
15:30

Borussia M'gladbach 3

SV 07 Elversberg 4

xG 2.36 – 2.31 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
15:30

SC Paderborn 07 0

SC Freiburg 1

xG 0.77 – 1.24 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
15:30

TSG Hoffenheim 2

Borussia Dortmund 3

xG 1.17 – 2.02 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Friday, 04/09/2026

1 match

20:30

VfB Stuttgart 4

1. FC Köln 1

xG 3.47 – 2.86 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Sunday, 30/08/2026

2 matches

17:30

FC Augsburg 3

FC Schalke 04 0

xG 3.52 – 1.54 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

SC Freiburg 4

SV Werder Bremen 1

xG 1.94 – 0.48 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 29/08/2026

6 matches

18:30

Borussia Dortmund 2

Hamburger SV 0

xG 1.53 – 0.91 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

1. FSV Mainz 05 0

SC Paderborn 07 0

xG 1.23 – 0.73 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

1. FC Union Berlin 3

Eintracht Frankfurt 3

xG 1.84 – 1.47 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

RB Leipzig 3

Borussia M'gladbach 0

xG 3.96 – 1.09 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

1. FC Köln 3

TSG Hoffenheim 2

xG 1.95 – 1.88 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
15:30

SV 07 Elversberg 3

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2

xG 1.27 – 1.88 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→

Friday, 28/08/2026

1 match

20:30

FC Bayern München 5

VfB Stuttgart 1

xG 4.06 – 0.79 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.