Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:30
13d 14h to kick-offFC Schalke 04 – 1. FSV Mainz 05
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Schalke 04
- 30%
- Draw
- 27%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 43%
| FC Schalke 04 | Draw | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.29 | 3.75 | 2.33 |
- Total goals
- 3.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans 1. FSV Mainz 05
43% 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 15th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack v FC Schalke 04 defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 14th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence v FC Schalke 04 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs -0.78
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.78
- FC Schalke 04 v 1. FSV Mainz 05
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Schalke 04 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.32 · 15th from 4 matches | (better) 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.11 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.92 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.78 from 4 matches | (better) +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
- 20%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Schalke 04 sample
- 4 matches
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Schalke 04
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- FC Schalke 04 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.