Hamburger SV 0:5 1. FSV Mainz 05: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV Home 0.19 xG · 8 shots

1. FSV Mainz 05 Away 2.77 xG · 17 shots

05 The scoreline reflected the chances

Hamburger SV were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. 1. FSV Mainz 05 won 5–0. The biggest difference was 1. FSV Mainz 05's attack: 2.77 xG against 1.46 projected (+1.31). Hamburger SV produced 0.19 xG against 1.47 projected (−1.28).

Goals

19' Sheraldo Becker 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.60 xG chance 0–1
41' Phillipp Mwene 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.92 xG chance 0–2
48' Phillip Tietz 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.10 xG chance 0–3
83' Phillip Tietz 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.04 xG chance 0–4
90' Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.44 xG chance 0–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Hamburger SV: 36%
Draw: 29%
1. FSV Mainz 05: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Hamburger SV 1.47 0.19 -1.28

1. FSV Mainz 05 1.46 2.77 +1.31

1. FSV Mainz 05 produced 1.31 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Hamburger SV 1. FSV Mainz 05

Shots: 8; 17
On target: 1; 8
Inside the box: 3; 14
xG per shot: 0.02; 0.18
Open play xG: 0.09; 2.75
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.31
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.06 for 1. FSV Mainz 05.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.25 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Hamburger SV
1. FSV Mainz 05
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hamburger SV

1.21 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 0.57 created, 1.74 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
L 1.37 created, 1.45 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
W 0.62 created, 0.65 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 1.98 created, 0.41 conceded against SC Freiburg
D 1.79 created, 3.27 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
L 0.91 created, 1.53 conceded against Borussia Dortmund

1. FSV Mainz 05

2.34 xG created 1.60 xGA

D 2.32 created, 0.62 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 2.69 created, 2.21 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.54 created, 0.84 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.57 created, 2.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 3.71 created, 2.53 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
D 1.23 created, 0.73 conceded against SC Paderborn 07

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Hamburger SV: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Hamburger SV against 1. FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.80	+4.2%	Won
Both teams to score	1.60	+3.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+1.5%	Won
Hamburger SV to win	2.80	+0.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Hamburger SV	35.9%	33.2%	+2.7 pp	2.79
Draw	28.9%	28.1%	+0.8 pp	3.46
1. FSV Mainz 05	35.2%	38.7%	−3.5 pp	2.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.9%	57.9%	+7.0 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.1%	42.1%	−7.0 pp	2.85
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	75.7%	+7.4 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	24.3%	−7.4 pp	5.89
Over 2.5 goals	57.9%	51.5%	+6.4 pp	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	42.1%	48.5%	−6.4 pp	2.38

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Hamburger SV sample: 20 matches
1. FSV Mainz 05 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.