Hamburger SV 4:0 1. FSV Mainz 05: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 05/10/2025 at 17:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV Home 1.91 xG · 15 shots

1. FSV Mainz 05 Away 0.67 xG · 11 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

6' Albert Sambi Lokonga Hamburger SV · 0.25 xG chance 1–0
10' Rayan Philippe Hamburger SV · 0.07 xG chance 2–0
52' Jean-Luc Dompé Hamburger SV · 0.02 xG chance 3–0
61' Rayan Philippe Hamburger SV · 0.69 xG chance 4–0

The shots behind it

Hamburger SV 1. FSV Mainz 05

Shots: 15; 11
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 10; 7
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.87; 0.35
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.31
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.92 for Hamburger SV and 0.66 for 1. FSV Mainz 05.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.62 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Hamburger SV
1. FSV Mainz 05
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hamburger SV

0.95 xG created 1.87 xGA

D 0.41 created, 1.04 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.35 created, 1.44 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 0.58 created, 2.54 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.35 created, 2.98 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
D 1.08 created, 1.37 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin

1. FSV Mainz 05

1.47 xG created 1.27 xGA

L 1.52 created, 1.36 conceded against 1. FC Köln
D 1.95 created, 0.62 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 0.90 created, 1.79 conceded against RB Leipzig
W 2.52 created, 1.12 conceded against FC Augsburg
L 0.48 created, 1.44 conceded against Borussia Dortmund

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.