Borussia M'gladbach 3:4 1. FSV Mainz 05: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

Borussia M'gladbach Home 3.24 xG · 21 shots

1. FSV Mainz 05 Away 2.82 xG · 16 shots

34 The result went against the chances

1. FSV Mainz 05 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 4–3. The biggest difference was Borussia M'gladbach's attack: 3.24 xG against 1.39 projected (+1.85). 1. FSV Mainz 05 produced 2.82 xG against 1.71 projected (+1.11).

Goals

11' Florian Neuhaus Borussia M'gladbach · 0.39 xG chance 1–0
18' Phillip Tietz 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.70 xG chance 1–1
45' Sheraldo Becker 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.08 xG chance 1–2
59' Isac Lidberg Borussia M'gladbach · 0.26 xG chance 2–2
78' Eric Martel 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.19 xG chance 2–3
89' Danny da Costa 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.27 xG chance 2–4
90' Shuto Machino (pen.) Borussia M'gladbach · 0.82 xG chance 3–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Borussia M'gladbach: 29%
Draw: 28%
1. FSV Mainz 05: 44% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Borussia M'gladbach 1.39 3.24 +1.85

1. FSV Mainz 05 1.71 2.82 +1.11

Borussia M'gladbach produced 1.85 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Borussia M'gladbach 1. FSV Mainz 05

Shots: 21; 16
On target: 7; 7
Inside the box: 15; 15
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.16
Open play xG: 1.26; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 0.53; 1.87
Penalties: 2; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.78 for Borussia M'gladbach and 2.58 for 1. FSV Mainz 05.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 5.99 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Borussia M'gladbach
1. FSV Mainz 05
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Borussia M'gladbach

1.36 xG created 2.26 xGA

W 2.20 created, 0.49 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 1.14 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Augsburg
W 1.20 created, 1.62 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
L 1.09 created, 3.96 conceded against RB Leipzig
L 2.36 created, 2.31 conceded against SV 07 Elversberg
L 0.19 created, 2.60 conceded against SC Freiburg

1. FSV Mainz 05

2.32 xG created 1.50 xGA

W 2.54 created, 0.84 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 1.57 created, 2.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 3.71 created, 2.53 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
D 1.23 created, 0.73 conceded against SC Paderborn 07
W 2.77 created, 0.19 conceded against Hamburger SV
L 2.12 created, 2.04 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Borussia M'gladbach: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Borussia M'gladbach against 1. FSV Mainz 05 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.90	+7.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	+5.1%	Lost
Borussia M'gladbach at most 1 goal	1.73	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Borussia M'gladbach	28.7%	31.6%	−2.9 pp	3.49
Draw	27.6%	24.3%	+3.3 pp	3.62
1. FSV Mainz 05	43.7%	44.1%	−0.4 pp	2.29

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Borussia M'gladbach to score	77.8%	78.3%	−0.5 pp	1.29
Borussia M'gladbach not to score	22.2%	21.7%	+0.5 pp	4.50
1. FSV Mainz 05 to score	84.4%	82.8%	+1.6 pp	1.18
1. FSV Mainz 05 not to score	15.6%	17.2%	−1.6 pp	6.41
Both teams to score	67.1%	64.5%	+2.6 pp	1.49
Both teams not to score	32.9%	35.5%	−2.6 pp	3.04
Borussia M'gladbach 2+ goals	41.4%	46.3%	−4.9 pp	2.42
Borussia M'gladbach at most 1 goal	58.6%	53.7%	+4.9 pp	1.71
1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals	52.8%	53.7%	−0.8 pp	1.89
1. FSV Mainz 05 at most 1 goal	47.2%	46.3%	+0.8 pp	2.12
Over 1.5 goals	85.3%	82.8%	+2.5 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.7%	17.2%	−2.5 pp	6.82
Over 2.5 goals	61.8%	65.6%	−3.8 pp	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.2%	34.4%	+3.8 pp	2.62

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Borussia M'gladbach sample: 20 matches
1. FSV Mainz 05 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.