Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:30
13d 13h to kick-offHamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hamburger SV
- 30%
- Draw
- 27%
- VfB Stuttgart
- 43%
| Hamburger SV | Draw | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.32 | 3.76 | 2.31 |
- Total goals
- 3.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans VfB Stuttgart
43% VfB Stuttgart to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 14th
- VfB Stuttgart attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 18th
- VfB Stuttgart defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.36 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.79
- Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 1.89 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches | 2.75 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) -0.86 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 1.01 · 11th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.73 | (better) -0.36 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet
- 20%
- VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · VfB Stuttgart
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.