Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeHamburger SV 2:1 1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Hamburger SV won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 44' Nicolás Capaldo Hamburger SV · 0.33 xG chance 1–0
- 49' Yussuf Poulsen Hamburger SV · 0.47 xG chance 2–0
- 90' Ragnar Ache 1. FC Köln · 0.19 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Hamburger SV
- 32% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- 1. FC Köln
- 39%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 18
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 7
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.28
- 1.42
- Set-piece xG
- 0.52
- 0.41
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.76 for Hamburger SV and 1.79 for 1. FC Köln.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 3.63 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Hamburger SV
- 1. FC Köln
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.10 xG created 1.84 xGA
- W 0.62 created, 0.65 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- W 1.98 created, 0.41 conceded against SC Freiburg
- D 1.79 created, 3.27 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- L 0.91 created, 1.53 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- L 0.19 created, 2.77 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
- L 1.10 created, 2.43 conceded against RB Leipzig
1.73 xG created 2.01 xGA
- D 1.75 created, 1.15 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- L 1.17 created, 1.36 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- L 0.98 created, 3.05 conceded against FC Bayern München
- W 1.95 created, 1.88 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- L 2.86 created, 3.47 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 1.65 created, 1.12 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +3.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 32.4% | 36.0% | −3.5 pp | 3.08 |
| Draw | 28.8% | 26.2% | +2.6 pp | 3.47 |
| 1. FC Köln | 38.8% | 37.8% | +1.0 pp | 2.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to score | 78.5% | 76.6% | +1.9 pp | 1.27 |
| Hamburger SV not to score | 21.5% | 23.4% | −1.9 pp | 4.64 |
| 1. FC Köln to score | 81.3% | 79.2% | +2.1 pp | 1.23 |
| 1. FC Köln not to score | 18.7% | 20.8% | −2.1 pp | 5.35 |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 62.5% | +2.9 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.6% | 37.5% | −2.9 pp | 2.89 |
| Hamburger SV 2+ goals | 42.4% | 46.3% | −3.9 pp | 2.36 |
| Hamburger SV at most 1 goal | 57.6% | 53.7% | +3.9 pp | 1.74 |
| 1. FC Köln 2+ goals | 47.2% | 48.5% | −1.3 pp | 2.12 |
| 1. FC Köln at most 1 goal | 52.8% | 51.5% | +1.3 pp | 1.89 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | 81.1% | +2.4 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.5% | 18.9% | −2.4 pp | 6.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 60.2% | −1.7 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 39.8% | +1.7 pp | 2.41 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FC Köln sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.