Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:30
Full timeFC Bayern München 5:1 VfB Stuttgart
FC Bayern München were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was FC Bayern München's attack: 4.06 xG against 2.38 projected (+1.68). VfB Stuttgart produced 0.79 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.66).
Goals
- 21' Dayot Upamecano FC Bayern München · 0.24 xG chance 1–0
- 52' Josha Vagnoman VfB Stuttgart · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
- 55' Michael Olise FC Bayern München · 0.57 xG chance 2–1
- 57' Josha Vagnoman (o.g.) FC Bayern München · 0.10 xG chance 3–1
- 82' Aleksandar Pavlović FC Bayern München · 0.89 xG chance 4–1
- 90' Luis Díaz FC Bayern München · 0.57 xG chance 5–1
The model against the result
- FC Bayern München
- 58% What happened
- Draw
- 22%
- VfB Stuttgart
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Bayern München produced 1.68 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 11
- On target
- 10
- 4
- Inside the box
- 14
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.18
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 3.33
- 0.77
- Set-piece xG
- 0.66
- 0.11
- Penalties
- —
- —
FC Bayern München's shots add up to 3.99 xG and VfB Stuttgart's to 0.88; the published figures are 4.06 and 0.79.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 4.87 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Bayern München
- VfB Stuttgart
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.98 xG created 1.86 xGA
- W 3.84 created, 0.49 conceded against FC St. Pauli
- W 4.61 created, 1.35 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- W 2.21 created, 2.69 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
- D 2.31 created, 2.59 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
- W 1.85 created, 3.04 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- W 3.05 created, 0.98 conceded against 1. FC Köln
2.10 xG created 1.97 xGA
- W 3.48 created, 0.71 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.35 created, 4.61 conceded against FC Bayern München
- D 1.82 created, 0.93 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- D 1.57 created, 2.47 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- W 3.04 created, 0.54 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- D 1.32 created, 2.56 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to win | 10.00 | +100.5% | Lost |
| FC Bayern München at most 1 goal | 5.50 | +58.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.00 | +53.0% | Lost |
| FC Bayern München not to score | 19.00 | +43.9% | Lost |
| VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals | 3.25 | +41.9% | Lost |
| VfB Stuttgart to score | 1.44 | +14.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +11.1% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.50 | +8.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München | 58.1% | 77.1% | −19.0 pp | 1.72 |
| Draw | 21.9% | 13.5% | +8.4 pp | 4.58 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 20.1% | 9.4% | +10.6 pp | 4.99 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München to score | 92.4% | 94.9% | −2.5 pp | 1.08 |
| FC Bayern München not to score | 7.6% | 5.1% | +2.5 pp | 13.20 |
| VfB Stuttgart to score | 79.1% | 64.5% | +14.6 pp | 1.26 |
| VfB Stuttgart not to score | 20.9% | 35.5% | −14.6 pp | 4.78 |
| Both teams to score | 74.1% | 62.5% | +11.6 pp | 1.35 |
| Both teams not to score | 25.9% | 37.5% | −11.6 pp | 3.86 |
| FC Bayern München 2+ goals | 71.2% | 82.8% | −11.6 pp | 1.40 |
| FC Bayern München at most 1 goal | 28.8% | 17.2% | +11.6 pp | 3.47 |
| VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals | 43.7% | 29.1% | +14.6 pp | 2.29 |
| VfB Stuttgart at most 1 goal | 56.3% | 70.9% | −14.6 pp | 1.78 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.3% | 91.3% | +1.0 pp | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 7.7% | 8.7% | −1.0 pp | 12.95 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.9% | 78.9% | −3.0 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.1% | 21.1% | +3.0 pp | 4.15 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.