SC Paderborn 07 3:1 TSG Hoffenheim: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 07 Home 0.68 xG · 13 shots

TSG Hoffenheim Away 1.50 xG · 22 shots

31 The result went against the chances

SC Paderborn 07 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was SC Paderborn 07's attack: 0.68 xG against 1.55 projected (−0.87).

Goals

29' Santiago Castañeda SC Paderborn 07 · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
42' Stefano Marino SC Paderborn 07 · 0.21 xG chance 2–0
50' Adam Daghim TSG Hoffenheim · 0.21 xG chance 2–1
69' Steffen Tigges SC Paderborn 07 · 0.09 xG chance 3–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Paderborn 07: 38% What happened
Draw: 28%
TSG Hoffenheim: 33%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Paderborn 07 1.55 0.68 -0.87

TSG Hoffenheim 1.46 1.50 +0.04

SC Paderborn 07 produced 0.87 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Paderborn 07 TSG Hoffenheim

Shots: 13; 22
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 7; 16
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.06
Open play xG: 0.59; 1.23
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.18
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.70 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.40 for TSG Hoffenheim.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 2.10 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SC Paderborn 07
TSG Hoffenheim
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Paderborn 07

0.66 xG created 1.41 xGA

D 0.73 created, 1.23 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
L 0.77 created, 1.24 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.49 created, 1.76 conceded against Borussia Dortmund

TSG Hoffenheim

1.90 xG created 1.66 xGA

D 2.47 created, 1.57 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
W 1.52 created, 1.07 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
L 1.62 created, 1.20 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 1.88 created, 1.95 conceded against 1. FC Köln
L 1.17 created, 2.02 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
W 2.76 created, 2.16 conceded against VfB Stuttgart

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Paderborn 07 against TSG Hoffenheim before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
TSG Hoffenheim not to score	8.00	+65.9%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 to win	4.33	+64.9%	Won
TSG Hoffenheim at most 1 goal	2.63	+47.2%	Won
Draw	4.50	+28.1%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	2.50	+18.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	+10.9%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 to score	1.30	+5.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Paderborn 07	38.1%	21.9%	+16.1 pp	2.63
Draw	28.5%	21.1%	+7.4 pp	3.51
TSG Hoffenheim	33.5%	57.0%	−23.5 pp	2.99

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Paderborn 07 to score	81.5%	72.3%	+9.1 pp	1.23
SC Paderborn 07 not to score	18.5%	27.7%	−9.1 pp	5.40
TSG Hoffenheim to score	79.3%	88.1%	−8.8 pp	1.26
TSG Hoffenheim not to score	20.7%	11.9%	+8.8 pp	4.82
Both teams to score	66.1%	64.5%	+1.6 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	33.9%	35.5%	−1.6 pp	2.95
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	47.5%	37.5%	+10.0 pp	2.11
SC Paderborn 07 at most 1 goal	52.5%	62.5%	−10.0 pp	1.90
TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals	43.9%	64.5%	−20.6 pp	2.28
TSG Hoffenheim at most 1 goal	56.1%	35.5%	+20.6 pp	1.78
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	84.2%	−0.1 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	15.8%	+0.1 pp	6.30
Over 2.5 goals	59.7%	65.6%	−5.9 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.3%	34.4%	+5.9 pp	2.48

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Paderborn 07 sample: 3 matches
TSG Hoffenheim sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

SC Paderborn 07 has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.