Borussia Dortmund 3:0 SC Paderborn 07: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund Home 1.76 xG · 14 shots

SC Paderborn 07 Away 0.49 xG · 10 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

Borussia Dortmund were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was SC Paderborn 07's attack: 0.49 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.54).

Goals

5' Fábio Silva Borussia Dortmund · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
80' Felix Nmecha Borussia Dortmund · 0.14 xG chance 2–0
89' Felix Nmecha Borussia Dortmund · 0.06 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund: 58% What happened
Draw: 25%
SC Paderborn 07: 17%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Borussia Dortmund 1.93 1.76 -0.17

SC Paderborn 07 1.03 0.49 -0.54

SC Paderborn 07 produced 0.54 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Borussia Dortmund SC Paderborn 07

Shots: 14; 10
On target: 8; 0
Inside the box: 10; 5
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.39; 0.34
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.10
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.68 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.42 for SC Paderborn 07.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.07 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Borussia Dortmund
SC Paderborn 07
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Borussia Dortmund

2.02 xG created 1.11 xGA

W 3.37 created, 0.76 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.49 created, 2.20 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 1.94 created, 1.12 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 2.74 created, 0.49 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
W 1.53 created, 0.91 conceded against Hamburger SV
W 2.02 created, 1.17 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim

SC Paderborn 07

0.75 xG created 1.23 xGA

D 0.73 created, 1.23 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
L 0.77 created, 1.24 conceded against SC Freiburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Borussia Dortmund against SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	6.50	+64.2%	Lost
Borussia Dortmund not to score	13.00	+60.5%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 to win	9.00	+51.6%	Lost
Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal	3.75	+51.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.40	+40.8%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+16.9%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	4.00	+10.1%	Lost
SC Paderborn 07 to score	1.57	+5.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.70	+2.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund	57.9%	74.8%	−16.9 pp	1.73
Draw	25.3%	14.6%	+10.6 pp	3.96
SC Paderborn 07	16.8%	10.6%	+6.3 pp	5.94

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score	87.7%	92.6%	−4.9 pp	1.14
Borussia Dortmund not to score	12.3%	7.4%	+4.9 pp	8.10
SC Paderborn 07 to score	67.2%	58.9%	+8.3 pp	1.49
SC Paderborn 07 not to score	32.8%	41.1%	−8.3 pp	3.05
Both teams to score	60.3%	54.7%	+5.7 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.7%	45.3%	−5.7 pp	2.52
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals	59.6%	75.0%	−15.4 pp	1.68
Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal	40.4%	25.0%	+15.4 pp	2.48
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals	27.5%	23.4%	+4.1 pp	3.63
SC Paderborn 07 at most 1 goal	72.5%	76.6%	−4.1 pp	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	83.3%	86.4%	−3.1 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.7%	13.6%	+3.1 pp	5.99
Over 2.5 goals	58.6%	71.8%	−13.3 pp	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.4%	28.2%	+13.3 pp	2.41

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Borussia Dortmund sample: 20 matches
SC Paderborn 07 sample: 2 matches
Computed: 36 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 36 minutes before kick-off

Warnings

SC Paderborn 07 has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.