Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:30
20d 14h to kick-off1. FSV Mainz 05 – SV Werder Bremen
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 51%
- Draw
- 27%
- SV Werder Bremen
- 22%
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | SV Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.96 | 3.69 | 4.57 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans 1. FSV Mainz 05
51% 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 4th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack v SV Werder Bremen defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 16th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence v SV Werder Bremen attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs -0.60
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.79 – 1.16
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 v SV Werder Bremen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches | 1.33 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches | 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches | -0.22 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches | 1.16 · 10th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.47 | -0.60 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
- 29%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · SV Werder Bremen
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.