Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:30
13d 12h to kick-offSV Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 07
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SV Werder Bremen
- 47%
- Draw
- 30%
- SC Paderborn 07
- 24%
| SV Werder Bremen | Draw | SC Paderborn 07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.15 | 3.36 | 4.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SV Werder Bremen
47% SV Werder Bremen to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 10th
- SV Werder Bremen attack v SC Paderborn 07 defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 17th
- SV Werder Bremen defence v SC Paderborn 07 attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.60 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.54 – 1.08
- SV Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SV Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.33 · 14th from 4 matches | 0.67 · 18th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) 1.43 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.22 · 10th from 4 matches | -0.77 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.16 · 10th from 4 matches | 0.72 · 16th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.60 | -0.77 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- SV Werder Bremen clean sheet
- 31%
- SV Werder Bremen 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:0
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SV Werder Bremen sample
- 20 matches
- SC Paderborn 07 sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · SV Werder Bremen
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · SC Paderborn 07
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- SC Paderborn 07 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.